拉近网络分组领导人之间的距离无助于达成共识

Matthew I. Jones, Nicholas A. Christakis
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摘要

共识的形成是一个复杂的过程,尤其是在网络群体中。当个体被激励坚持己见、拒绝妥协时,领导者可能是引导群体达成共识的关键。具体来说,领导者的相对位置(我们用它来代表领导者之间沟通的难易程度)可能对达成共识非常重要。此外,寻求共识的群体可能会受到嘈杂信号的干扰,在嘈杂信号中,个体会得到关于其同伴行动的错误信息。我们通过招募参与者(人数=3456)参加一组实验(人数=216 组),测试了领导者之间的大地距离(大地距离范围为 1-4)和噪音(噪音水平为 0%、5% 和 10%)的影响。我们发现,噪音会降低小组达成共识的可能性,而达成共识的小组需要更长的时间才能找到共识。我们发现,领导力会以重要的方式改变领导者和追随者的行为(例如,被贴上领导者的标签会让人们更愿意 "随大流")。但是,我们没有发现任何证据表明,领导者之间的距离是影响达成共识概率的重要因素。领导者的其他网络属性无疑会影响共识的形成,但网络子群中领导者之间的距离似乎并不重要。
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Bringing Leaders of Network Sub-Groups Closer Together Does Not Facilitate Consensus
Consensus formation is a complex process, particularly in networked groups. When individuals are incentivized to dig in and refuse to compromise, leaders may be essential to guiding the group to consensus. Specifically, the relative geodesic position of leaders (which we use as a proxy for ease of communication between leaders) could be important for reaching consensus. Additionally, groups searching for consensus can be confounded by noisy signals in which individuals are given false information about the actions of their fellow group members. We tested the effects of the geodesic distance between leaders (geodesic distance ranging from 1-4) and of noise (noise levels at 0%, 5%, and 10%) by recruiting participants (N=3,456) for a set of experiments (n=216 groups). We find that noise makes groups less likely to reach consensus, and the groups that do reach consensus take longer to find it. We find that leadership changes the behavior of both leaders and followers in important ways (for instance, being labeled a leader makes people more likely to 'go with the flow'). However, we find no evidence that the distance between leaders is a significant factor in the probability of reaching consensus. While other network properties of leaders undoubtedly impact consensus formation, the distance between leaders in network sub-groups appears not to matter.
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