{"title":"从活动网络的分形性质推导出布罗米洛时间成本模型","authors":"Alexei Vazquez","doi":"arxiv-2409.00110","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In 1969 Bromilow observed that the time $T$ to execute a construction project\nfollows a power law scaling with the project cost $C$, $T\\sim C^B$ [Bromilow\n1969]. While the Bromilow's time-cost model has been extensively tested using\ndata for different countries and project types, there is no theoretical\nexplanation for the algebraic scaling. Here I mathematically deduce the\nBromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks. The\nBromislow's exponent is $B=1-\\alpha$, where $1-\\alpha$ is the scaling exponent\nbetween the number of activities in the critical path $L$ and the number of\nactivities $N$, $L\\sim N^{1-\\alpha}$ with $0\\leq\\alpha<1$ [Vazquez et al 2023].\nI provide empirical data showing that projects with low serial/parallel (SP)%\nhave lower $B$ values than those with higher SP%. I conclude that the\nBromilow's time-cost model is a law of activity networks, the Bromilow's\nexponent is a network property and forecasting project duration from cost\nshould be limited to projects with high SP%.","PeriodicalId":501043,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - PHYS - Physics and Society","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Deduction of the Bromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks\",\"authors\":\"Alexei Vazquez\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.00110\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In 1969 Bromilow observed that the time $T$ to execute a construction project\\nfollows a power law scaling with the project cost $C$, $T\\\\sim C^B$ [Bromilow\\n1969]. While the Bromilow's time-cost model has been extensively tested using\\ndata for different countries and project types, there is no theoretical\\nexplanation for the algebraic scaling. Here I mathematically deduce the\\nBromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks. The\\nBromislow's exponent is $B=1-\\\\alpha$, where $1-\\\\alpha$ is the scaling exponent\\nbetween the number of activities in the critical path $L$ and the number of\\nactivities $N$, $L\\\\sim N^{1-\\\\alpha}$ with $0\\\\leq\\\\alpha<1$ [Vazquez et al 2023].\\nI provide empirical data showing that projects with low serial/parallel (SP)%\\nhave lower $B$ values than those with higher SP%. I conclude that the\\nBromilow's time-cost model is a law of activity networks, the Bromilow's\\nexponent is a network property and forecasting project duration from cost\\nshould be limited to projects with high SP%.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501043,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - PHYS - Physics and Society\",\"volume\":\"5 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - PHYS - Physics and Society\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00110\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - PHYS - Physics and Society","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00110","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Deduction of the Bromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks
In 1969 Bromilow observed that the time $T$ to execute a construction project
follows a power law scaling with the project cost $C$, $T\sim C^B$ [Bromilow
1969]. While the Bromilow's time-cost model has been extensively tested using
data for different countries and project types, there is no theoretical
explanation for the algebraic scaling. Here I mathematically deduce the
Bromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks. The
Bromislow's exponent is $B=1-\alpha$, where $1-\alpha$ is the scaling exponent
between the number of activities in the critical path $L$ and the number of
activities $N$, $L\sim N^{1-\alpha}$ with $0\leq\alpha<1$ [Vazquez et al 2023].
I provide empirical data showing that projects with low serial/parallel (SP)%
have lower $B$ values than those with higher SP%. I conclude that the
Bromilow's time-cost model is a law of activity networks, the Bromilow's
exponent is a network property and forecasting project duration from cost
should be limited to projects with high SP%.