农业项目投资与风险评估框架

Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Journal of Risk and Financial Management Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI:10.3390/jrfm17090378
Leonir Vilani, Antonio Zanin, Mauro Lizot, Marcelo Gonçalves Trentin, Paulo Afonso, José Donizetti de Lima
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于若干因素,农业项目(APs)的投资评估要求特别高。也就是说,农业项目可能具有较长的时间跨度、较高的外部和内部波动性,以及由于对生产和外部条件(如气候条件和市场需求)控制较少而造成的不确定性。事实上,这些非营利组织可能面临高风险和不同的风险,应加以妥善管理。然而,文献和实践都没有对这种复杂性和不确定性进行便捷的处理。因此,本研究旨在开发一个综合且易于使用的框架,以支持杀伤人员地雷的投资评估,该框架超越了基于简单和确定性模型的传统方法。该框架基于一种包含多种资本预算技术的方法,包括扩展多指数方法(EMIM)、蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)和实物期权分析(ROA)。该框架允许处理不同的风险和不确定性情景以及管理灵活性,从而允许替代和额外的投资选择。对于通常不使用复杂决策工具的家庭农业企业来说,更简单易行的方法尤为重要。考虑到此类系统与可持续农业的相关性,以及与传统方法相比其较高的风险性和复杂性,我们使用了农-水-牧系统(即农业、畜牧业、林业)中的 AP 来介绍和讨论所建议的方法。该框架的主要贡献在于,以若干工具为基础,构建了一套对可持续农业进行投资评估的步骤。
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A Framework for Investment and Risk Assessment of Agricultural Projects
Investment appraisal of agricultural projects (APs) is particularly demanding due to several factors. Namely, APs may have longer time horizons, higher external and internal volatility, and uncertainty caused by less control of production and external conditions (e.g., climatic conditions and market demand). Indeed, these APs may face high and different risks that should be managed properly. Nevertheless, both the literature and practice do not address such complexity and uncertainty conveniently. Thus, this research aimed to develop an integrative and easy-to-use framework to support the investment appraisal of APs, which goes beyond the traditional approach based on simple and deterministic models. This framework is based on an approach that includes several capital budgeting techniques integrating extended multi-index methodology (EMIM), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and real options analysis (ROA). This framework allows dealing with different risk and uncertainty scenarios and managerial flexibilities, which allow alternative and additional investment options. A simpler and easier approach can be particularly important for family agribusinesses, which usually do not use sophisticated decision-making tools. An AP in an agrosilvopastoral system (i.e., agriculture, livestock, forestry) was used to present and discuss the proposed methodology considering the relevance of such systems for sustainable agriculture and their higher risk and complexity when compared to traditional approaches. The main contribution of the framework is structuring a set of steps based on several tools to carry out investment appraisal in APs.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
512
审稿时长
11 weeks
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