Elevated risk of pre-diabetes and diabetes in people with past history of COVID-19 in northeastern Nigeria

An increased risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) after COVID-19 has been reported in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The burden of COVID-related DM has yet to be described in Africa, where the overall risk of DM has been increasing rapidly. Our objective was to compare the prevalence of pre-DM and DM in Nigerian individuals with a history of COVID-19 to individuals without known COVID-19 infection. We undertook a retrospective cohort study with 256 individuals with a past medical history of COVID-19 with no history of pre-DM or DM and 256 individuals without a history of COVID-19 or pre-DM/DM. Participants were categorized as pre-DM (fasting capillary glucose 100–125 mg/dL) or DM (fasting capillary glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL). We employed univariate and multivariable logistic regression to identify key predictors and adjust for confounders related to hyperglycaemia risk factors. Additionally, we used multinomial logistic regression to analyze the relationship between COVID-19 history and diabetes status, distinguishing between normal, pre-diabetic, and diabetic glucose levels. All models were adjusted for age, gender, hypertension, physical activity, central adiposity, and family history of DM. Compared to the control group, those with a history of COVID-19 had a similar median age (38 vs. 40 years, p = 0.84), had a higher proportion of men (63% vs. 49%), and had a lower prevalence of central adiposity (waist: hip ratio ≥ 0.90 for males and WHR ≥ 0.85 for females) (48% vs. 56.3%, p = 0.06). Of the 256 with a history of COVID-19, 44 (17%) required in-patient care. The median (interquartile range) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and the glycaemic assessment was 19 (IQR: 14, 24) months. Pre-DM prevalence was 27% in the post-COVID-19 group and 4% in the control group, whereas the prevalence of DM was 7% in the post-COVID-19 group and 2% in the control group. After multivariable adjustment, the odds of pre-DM were 8.12 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.98, 16.58; p < 0.001) higher, and the odds of DM were 3.97 (95% CI: 1.16, 13.63) higher in those with a history of COVID-19 compared to controls. In the adjusted multinomial logistic regression analysis, individuals with a history of COVID-19 exhibited significantly elevated risks for pre-diabetes (RRR = 7.55, 95% CI: 3.76–15.17) and diabetes (RRR = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.01–11.71) compared to those without COVID-19. Previous COVID-19 was found to be a risk factor for prevalent pre-diabetes and diabetes mellitus in Nigeria. More intensive screening for DM in those with a history of COVID-19 should be considered.