为什么 COVID 大流行会戛然而止？

IF 1.6 4区物理与天体物理 Q3 PHYSICS, CONDENSED MATTER The European Physical Journal B Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI:10.1140/epjb/s10051-024-00733-0

Marcelo A. Moret, James C. Phillips

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摘要

通过热力学标度定量实现的相变理论解释了从CoV2003到CoV2019的数百个关键突变所导致的冠状病毒极高传染性的演变，以及后来由30个突变导致的2021年向Omicron的演变。研究还表明，2022 年出现五次突变的菌株 BA.5 开始了一条新的道路。在这里，我们发现 2023 年早期的菌株 BKK 发生了一次变硬突变，证实了这一演化路径，而 2023 年晚期的变种 EG.5 发生的一次弯曲突变则进一步加强了这一演化路径。由于本文提出的机械原因，新路径中的少数变异大大减少了大流行病的死亡人数。

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Why and how did the COVID pandemic end abruptly?

Phase transition theory, implemented quantitatively by thermodynamic scaling, has explained the evolution of Coronavirus’ extremely high contagiousness caused by a few key mutations from CoV2003 to CoV2019 identified among hundreds, as well as the later 2021 evolution to Omicron caused by 30 mutations. It also showed that the 2022 strain BA.5 with five mutations began a new path. Here we show that the early 2023 strains BKK with one stiffening mutation confirm that path, and the single flexing mutation of a later 2023 variant EG.5 strengthens it further. The few mutations of the new path have greatly reduced pandemic deaths, for mechanical reasons proposed here.