当前和未来气候情景下印度伊蚊潜在分布的空间异质性

IF 2.1 3区 医学 Q2 PARASITOLOGY Acta tropica Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107403
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引用次数: 0

摘要

伊蚊是 21 世纪全球分布最广的蚊属,传播各种虫媒病毒疾病。埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊繁殖栖息地的迅速扩张是对全球公共卫生的重大威胁,其驱动力是温度和降水量的变化。本研究采用生物气候变量来预测埃及蚁和白纹伊蚊在印度的空间分布。研究人员检索了埃及伊蚊出现地(n = 583)的参考坐标点(比例为 1 千米)和 19 个生物气候因子,以训练这两个物种的 SDM(物种分布模型)。最大熵模型用于预测物种的基本气候生态位分布。利用全球气候模型分别对 2021-2040 年和 2081-2100 年进行了未来预测。模型的表现相当不错(AUC > 0.77)。这两个物种都在昼夜温差降低和年平均气温升高的条件下生长,其适宜性随着降水量的增加而增加。埃及伊蚊现在和未来的预测分布范围比阿尔博比特伊蚊更广。在不同的未来气候情景下,埃及伊蚊适宜性的扩大程度各不相同。在 SSP(共同的社会经济路径)情景 1 和 3 下,埃及伊蚊的适宜性到 2100 年将分别扩大 17.6% 至 41.1%,而在 SSP 情景 1 和 3 下,白纹伊蚊的适宜性将分别增加 10.2% 至 25%。为应对未来的流行病和疫情爆发,需要建立强大的病媒分布模型,以确定高风险地区,为监测和控制分配资源,并实施预防战略。
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Spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in India under current and future climatic scenarios

Aedes is the most globally distributed mosquito genus in the 21st century and transmits various arboviral diseases. The rapid expansion of Ae. Aegypti and Ae. albopictus breeding habitats is a significant threat to global public health, driven by temperature and precipitation changes. In this study, bioclimatic variables were employed to predict the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in India. The reference coordinate points of (n = 583) Aedes occurrences at a scale of ∼1 km and nineteen bioclimatic factors were retrieved to train SDM (Species Distribution Models) for both species. Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the species’ fundamental climatic niche distributions. Future projections were made using global climate models for 2021–2040 and 2081–2100 separately. The models performed reasonably well (AUC > 0.77). Both species thrived in reduced diurnal temperature and higher annual mean temperatures, with suitability increasing alongside precipitation. Ae. aegypti’s projected present and future distribution was broader than that of Ae. Albopictus. The expansion of Aedes suitability varied under different future climatic scenarios. Suitability for Ae. aegypti could expand from between 17.6 and 41.1 % in 2100 under SSP (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios 1 and 3, respectively, whereas for Ae. albopictus suitability increased from between 10.2 and 25 % under SSP scenarios 1 and 3 respectively. Preparing for future epidemics and outbreaks requires robust vector distribution models to identify high-risk areas, allocate resources for surveillance and control, and implement prevention strategies.

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来源期刊
Acta tropica
Acta tropica 医学-寄生虫学
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
11.10%
发文量
383
审稿时长
37 days
期刊介绍: Acta Tropica, is an international journal on infectious diseases that covers public health sciences and biomedical research with particular emphasis on topics relevant to human and animal health in the tropics and the subtropics.
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