{"title":"大幅延长陆地生物圈的寿命","authors":"R. J. Graham, Itay Halevy, Dorian Abbot","doi":"arxiv-2409.10714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Approximately one billion years (Gyr) in the future, as the Sun brightens,\nEarth's carbonate-silicate cycle is expected to drive CO$_2$ below the minimum\nlevel required by vascular land plants, eliminating most macroscopic land life.\nHere, we couple global-mean models of temperature- and CO$_2$-dependent plant\nproductivity for C$_3$ and C$_4$ plants, silicate weathering, and climate to\nre-examine the time remaining for terrestrial plants. If weathering is weakly\ntemperature-dependent (as recent data suggest) and/or strongly\nCO$_2$-dependent, we find that the interplay between climate, productivity, and\nweathering causes the future luminosity-driven CO$_2$ decrease to slow and\ntemporarily reverse, averting plant CO$_2$ starvation. This dramatically\nlengthens plant survival from 1 Gyr up to $\\sim$1.6-1.86 Gyr, until extreme\ntemperatures halt photosynthesis, suggesting a revised kill mechanism for land\nplants and potential doubling of the future lifespan of Earth's land\nmacrobiota. An increased future lifespan for the complex biosphere may imply\nthat Earth life had to achieve a smaller number of ``hard steps'' (unlikely\nevolutionary transitions) to produce intelligent life than previously\nestimated. These results also suggest that complex photosynthetic land life on\nEarth and exoplanets may be able to persist until the onset of the moist\ngreenhouse transition.","PeriodicalId":501044,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuanBio - Populations and Evolution","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Substantial extension of the lifetime of the terrestrial biosphere\",\"authors\":\"R. J. Graham, Itay Halevy, Dorian Abbot\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.10714\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Approximately one billion years (Gyr) in the future, as the Sun brightens,\\nEarth's carbonate-silicate cycle is expected to drive CO$_2$ below the minimum\\nlevel required by vascular land plants, eliminating most macroscopic land life.\\nHere, we couple global-mean models of temperature- and CO$_2$-dependent plant\\nproductivity for C$_3$ and C$_4$ plants, silicate weathering, and climate to\\nre-examine the time remaining for terrestrial plants. If weathering is weakly\\ntemperature-dependent (as recent data suggest) and/or strongly\\nCO$_2$-dependent, we find that the interplay between climate, productivity, and\\nweathering causes the future luminosity-driven CO$_2$ decrease to slow and\\ntemporarily reverse, averting plant CO$_2$ starvation. This dramatically\\nlengthens plant survival from 1 Gyr up to $\\\\sim$1.6-1.86 Gyr, until extreme\\ntemperatures halt photosynthesis, suggesting a revised kill mechanism for land\\nplants and potential doubling of the future lifespan of Earth's land\\nmacrobiota. An increased future lifespan for the complex biosphere may imply\\nthat Earth life had to achieve a smaller number of ``hard steps'' (unlikely\\nevolutionary transitions) to produce intelligent life than previously\\nestimated. These results also suggest that complex photosynthetic land life on\\nEarth and exoplanets may be able to persist until the onset of the moist\\ngreenhouse transition.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501044,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuanBio - Populations and Evolution\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuanBio - Populations and Evolution\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.10714\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuanBio - Populations and Evolution","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.10714","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Substantial extension of the lifetime of the terrestrial biosphere
Approximately one billion years (Gyr) in the future, as the Sun brightens,
Earth's carbonate-silicate cycle is expected to drive CO$_2$ below the minimum
level required by vascular land plants, eliminating most macroscopic land life.
Here, we couple global-mean models of temperature- and CO$_2$-dependent plant
productivity for C$_3$ and C$_4$ plants, silicate weathering, and climate to
re-examine the time remaining for terrestrial plants. If weathering is weakly
temperature-dependent (as recent data suggest) and/or strongly
CO$_2$-dependent, we find that the interplay between climate, productivity, and
weathering causes the future luminosity-driven CO$_2$ decrease to slow and
temporarily reverse, averting plant CO$_2$ starvation. This dramatically
lengthens plant survival from 1 Gyr up to $\sim$1.6-1.86 Gyr, until extreme
temperatures halt photosynthesis, suggesting a revised kill mechanism for land
plants and potential doubling of the future lifespan of Earth's land
macrobiota. An increased future lifespan for the complex biosphere may imply
that Earth life had to achieve a smaller number of ``hard steps'' (unlikely
evolutionary transitions) to produce intelligent life than previously
estimated. These results also suggest that complex photosynthetic land life on
Earth and exoplanets may be able to persist until the onset of the moist
greenhouse transition.