气候变化背景下基于地理信息系统的农业土地利用有利性评估:阿普塞尼山脉案例研究

Q1 Mathematics Applied Sciences Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI:10.3390/app14188348
Gabriela Săvan, Ioan Păcurar, Sanda Roșca, Hilda Megyesi, Ioan Fodorean, Ștefan Bilașco, Cornel Negrușier, Lucian Vasile Bara, Fiodor Filipov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究以气候变化的影响为重点,以地理信息系统为基础,对阿普塞尼山脉的土地使用有利性进行了全面评估。阿普塞尼山脉是一个以生物多样性和复杂地形为特点的地区,越来越容易受到气候变化的影响,自然生态系统和人类活动都受到了威胁。之所以选择 11 个领土行政单位的领土作为调查对象,是因为 COVID-19 大流行后,人们向山区迁移,增加了这一地区的人为压力,从而使这一地区受到更多人为因素的影响。研究人员利用描述研究地区气候、土壤特性和地貌形态特征的因素,对当前地块的有利性和限制性进行了分类,并利用定量地理信息系统模型确定了土地对主要作物和农业用途的有利性。因此,考虑到当前的气温和降水值,并使用 2020-2099 年期间的 SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 情景,初步得出了当前的土地适宜性。结果表明,不同有利等级的土地统计分类存在差异,牧场的高有利等级减少了 4.7%,草地估计减少了 4.4%,果园的情况则反映出波动变化。根据 SSP2-4.5(平均气温达到 12.7 °C,年降水量达到 895 毫米),极低有利度等级的地块减少了 6.4%,而高有利度和极高有利度等级的地块增加了 0.7%。
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GIS-Based Agricultural Land Use Favorability Assessment in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Apuseni Mountains
With an emphasis on the effects of climate change, this study offers a thorough GIS-based assessment of land use favorability in the Apuseni Mountains. The Apuseni Mountains, a region characterized by its biodiversity and complex terrain, are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which threaten both natural ecosystems and human activities. The territory of 11 territorial administrative units was selected for the investigation because it shows more of an anthropogenic influence due to the migration of people to mountainous areas following the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased the amount of anthropogenic pressure in this area. Factors that describe the climate of the study area, the soil characteristics, and the morphometric characteristics of the relief were used to create a classification for the present on classes of favorability and restrictiveness for the plots of land, using a quantitative GIS model to determine the favorability of the land for the main crops and agricultural uses. The current land favorability was thus initially obtained, taking into account current temperature and precipitation values and using the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2020–2099 time frame. The results indicate a variation in the statistical classification of the land for different favorability classes, a decrease of 4.7% for the high favorability class for pastures, an estimated decrease of 4.4% for grassland, and in the case of orchards, the situation reflects a fluctuating variation. There is a decrease of 6.4% in the case of the very low favorability class according to SSP2-4.5 (in the case of reaching an average temperature of 12.7 °C and an annual precipitation of 895 mm), and in case of high and very high favorability, there is an increase in plots falling into better high favorability classes of up to 0.7%.
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来源期刊
Applied Sciences
Applied Sciences Mathematics-Applied Mathematics
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: APPS is an international journal. APPS covers a wide spectrum of pure and applied mathematics in science and technology, promoting especially papers presented at Carpato-Balkan meetings. The Editorial Board of APPS takes a very active role in selecting and refereeing papers, ensuring the best quality of contemporary mathematics and its applications. APPS is abstracted in Zentralblatt für Mathematik. The APPS journal uses Double blind peer review.
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