{"title":"人工神经网络在萨拉热窝地区电力消耗预测中的应用","authors":"Lena Zec, Jovan Mikulović, Mileta Žarković","doi":"10.1007/s00202-024-02696-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents an innovative method for forecasting power consumption in the power system using an artificial neural network (ANN). The method was validated in the case of predicting power consumption for the Sarajevo region in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Power consumption is planned daily for the day-ahead with hourly resolution. Measured data on air temperature, wind speed, and insolation for 2017 to 2020 were utilized as input variables in the proposed power consumption forecasting method. The influence of these input variables on power consumption was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The neural network underwent training with data on input variables and power consumption from 2017 to 2020 and was subsequently applied to forecast day-ahead power consumption for 2021. Due to the implementation of a neural network with a greater number of input variables, a smaller error in the power consumption forecast for 2021 was achieved compared to the forecast performed by the Electric Power Company. Therefore, the proposed method can be used as a more reliable tool for day-ahead power consumption forecasting. Additionally, the continual increase in the historical data on power consumption and influencing variables over time is expected to further enhance the reliability of power consumption forecasting using ANN.</p>","PeriodicalId":50546,"journal":{"name":"Electrical Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Application of artificial neural network to power consumption forecasting for the Sarajevo region\",\"authors\":\"Lena Zec, Jovan Mikulović, Mileta Žarković\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00202-024-02696-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper presents an innovative method for forecasting power consumption in the power system using an artificial neural network (ANN). The method was validated in the case of predicting power consumption for the Sarajevo region in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Power consumption is planned daily for the day-ahead with hourly resolution. Measured data on air temperature, wind speed, and insolation for 2017 to 2020 were utilized as input variables in the proposed power consumption forecasting method. The influence of these input variables on power consumption was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The neural network underwent training with data on input variables and power consumption from 2017 to 2020 and was subsequently applied to forecast day-ahead power consumption for 2021. Due to the implementation of a neural network with a greater number of input variables, a smaller error in the power consumption forecast for 2021 was achieved compared to the forecast performed by the Electric Power Company. Therefore, the proposed method can be used as a more reliable tool for day-ahead power consumption forecasting. Additionally, the continual increase in the historical data on power consumption and influencing variables over time is expected to further enhance the reliability of power consumption forecasting using ANN.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50546,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Electrical Engineering\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Electrical Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-024-02696-y\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Electrical Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-024-02696-y","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
Application of artificial neural network to power consumption forecasting for the Sarajevo region
This paper presents an innovative method for forecasting power consumption in the power system using an artificial neural network (ANN). The method was validated in the case of predicting power consumption for the Sarajevo region in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Power consumption is planned daily for the day-ahead with hourly resolution. Measured data on air temperature, wind speed, and insolation for 2017 to 2020 were utilized as input variables in the proposed power consumption forecasting method. The influence of these input variables on power consumption was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The neural network underwent training with data on input variables and power consumption from 2017 to 2020 and was subsequently applied to forecast day-ahead power consumption for 2021. Due to the implementation of a neural network with a greater number of input variables, a smaller error in the power consumption forecast for 2021 was achieved compared to the forecast performed by the Electric Power Company. Therefore, the proposed method can be used as a more reliable tool for day-ahead power consumption forecasting. Additionally, the continual increase in the historical data on power consumption and influencing variables over time is expected to further enhance the reliability of power consumption forecasting using ANN.
期刊介绍:
The journal “Electrical Engineering” following the long tradition of Archiv für Elektrotechnik publishes original papers of archival value in electrical engineering with a strong focus on electric power systems, smart grid approaches to power transmission and distribution, power system planning, operation and control, electricity markets, renewable power generation, microgrids, power electronics, electrical machines and drives, electric vehicles, railway electrification systems and electric transportation infrastructures, energy storage in electric power systems and vehicles, high voltage engineering, electromagnetic transients in power networks, lightning protection, electrical safety, electrical insulation systems, apparatus, devices, and components. Manuscripts describing theoretical, computer application and experimental research results are welcomed.
Electrical Engineering - Archiv für Elektrotechnik is published in agreement with Verband der Elektrotechnik Elektronik Informationstechnik eV (VDE).