A Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on the Optimized Projection Pursuit Regression Model: A Case Study from China

The Han River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) has a substantial amount of water resources; however, its distribution is uneven, and issues such as seasonal and engineering water shortages are prevalent. This necessitates a thorough assessment of the current water resource situation and trends in water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) to provide scientific support for the rational allocation of water resources. This study employed the RAGA-PP model to establish a WRCC evaluation index system composed of four subsystems: water resources, economy, society, and the ecological environment. The WRCC of the 17 major cities in the HREEB was evaluated from 2008 to 2022. The differentiation method was introduced to compare the reliability of the RAGA-PP model with three evaluation methods: the entropy weight TOPSIS method, the rank sum ratio method, and the principal component analysis method. In addition, an obstacle degree model was introduced to analyze the factors influencing WRCC enhancement. The results indicated the following. (1) In the differentiation test of the four models, the RAGA-PP model was found to have the highest differentiation value, and the results showed that it was more reliable in the WRCC evaluation of HREEB. (2) WRCC in the HREEB underwent significant changes between 2008 and 2022. (3) The WRCC in Shiyan and Wuhan, which are located in the eastern part of the HREEB, were high in Hubei, low in four cities in Henan, and satisfactory in three cities in Shaanxi. (4) The carrying capacity of the subsystems of the cities in the HREEB exhibited fluctuating changes with obvious internal variations. (5) The problems in the WRCC guideline layer were consistent across all cities in the HREEB, with limited per capita water resources being the primary issue in the indicator layer. Assessing WRCC is essential for achieving sustainable water resource use and high-quality regional development.