带跳跃的新型 SVIR 流行病模型,用于了解双重疾病的传播动态。

Abdulwasea Alkhazzan,Jungang Wang,Yufeng Nie,Hasib Khan,Jehad Alzabut
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引用次数: 0

摘要

多种疾病流行病的出现对全球健康构成了日益严重的威胁。为了应对这一严峻挑战,我们提出了一种创新的随机易感-疫苗接种-感染-康复流行病模型,该模型可解决两种疾病的动态变化以及复杂的疫苗接种策略问题。我们通过理论和数值分析对这一新型模型进行了全面的探索。停止时间概念以及适当的 Lyapunov 函数使我们能够探索全局正解的可能性。通过推导与随机模型相关的繁殖数,我们建立了疾病可能灭绝的标准。我们解释了一种或两种疾病可能持续存在的条件。在数值方面,我们推导出一种基于米尔斯坦方法的计算方案。该方案不仅证实了理论结果,还有助于研究参数对疾病动力学的影响。通过实例和模拟,我们了解了参数变化对系统行为的重要影响。
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A novel SVIR epidemic model with jumps for understanding the dynamics of the spread of dual diseases.
The emergence of multi-disease epidemics presents an escalating threat to global health. In response to this serious challenge, we present an innovative stochastic susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered epidemic model that addresses the dynamics of two diseases alongside intricate vaccination strategies. Our novel model undergoes a comprehensive exploration through both theoretical and numerical analyses. The stopping time concept, along with appropriate Lyapunov functions, allows us to explore the possibility of a globally positive solution. Through the derivation of reproduction numbers associated with the stochastic model, we establish criteria for the potential extinction of the diseases. The conditions under which one or both diseases may persist are explained. In the numerical aspect, we derive a computational scheme based on the Milstein method. The scheme will not only substantiate the theoretical results but also facilitate the examination of the impact of parameters on disease dynamics. Through examples and simulations, we have a crucial impact of varying parameters on the system's behavior.
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