bayesCureRateModel:用 R 对事件发生时间数据进行贝叶斯治愈率建模

Panagiotis Papastamoulis, Fotios Milienos
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引用次数: 0

摘要

治愈模型系列提供了一个独特的机会,可以同时模拟治愈受试者(不面临相关事件的受试 者)的比例和易感者(面临事件的受试者)的事件发生时间分布函数。实际上,治愈模型的应用主要得益于各种 R 软件包。不过,这些软件包大多主要关注混合模型或推广时间治愈率模型。本文介绍了一种用 R 实现的完全贝叶斯方法,用于估计存在协变量的一般治愈率模型系列。它以 Papastamoulis 和 Milienos(2024 年)的研究为基础,额外考虑了描述促进时间的各种选项,包括 Weibull、指数、Gompertz、logistic 和伽马分布的有限混合物等。此外,用户还可以选择任何适当的分布函数来模拟推广时间(前提是满足某些特定条件)。后验推断是通过构建一个 Metropolis 耦合马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)采样器来实现的,该采样器结合了吉布斯采样(Gibbs sampling)和 Metropolis-Hastings 步骤(Metropolis-Hastings steps),并采用朗文扩散动力学(Langevin diffusiondynamics)进行参数更新。通过考虑目标后验分布的加热版本,主要的 MCMC 算法被嵌入到平行调节方案中。该软件包在一个真实数据集上进行了说明,该数据集分析了在种族、年龄和是否有孩子等各种协变量存在的情况下初婚的持续时间。
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bayesCureRateModel: Bayesian Cure Rate Modeling for Time to Event Data in R
The family of cure models provides a unique opportunity to simultaneously model both the proportion of cured subjects (those not facing the event of interest) and the distribution function of time-to-event for susceptibles (those facing the event). In practice, the application of cure models is mainly facilitated by the availability of various R packages. However, most of these packages primarily focus on the mixture or promotion time cure rate model. This article presents a fully Bayesian approach implemented in R to estimate a general family of cure rate models in the presence of covariates. It builds upon the work by Papastamoulis and Milienos (2024) by additionally considering various options for describing the promotion time, including the Weibull, exponential, Gompertz, log-logistic and finite mixtures of gamma distributions, among others. Moreover, the user can choose any proper distribution function for modeling the promotion time (provided that some specific conditions are met). Posterior inference is carried out by constructing a Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, which combines Gibbs sampling for the latent cure indicators and Metropolis-Hastings steps with Langevin diffusion dynamics for parameter updates. The main MCMC algorithm is embedded within a parallel tempering scheme by considering heated versions of the target posterior distribution. The package is illustrated on a real dataset analyzing the duration of the first marriage under the presence of various covariates such as the race, age and the presence of kids.
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