Scenario-aware clustered federated learning for vehicle trajectory prediction with non-IID data

In recent years, Federated Learning (FL) has attracted much attention in Vehicle Trajectory Prediction (VTP) as it can resolve the critical issues of insufficient data, data privacy, and training efficiency. However, compared with centralized training, the model trained by FL may have insufficient prediction performance. This important issue comes from a statistical heterogeneity distribution of the local data in the participating clients, that is, non-IID. Therefore, this paper introduces a Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) approach for the VTP model to mitigate the influence of non-IID data. The proposed approach consists of federated trajectory clustering and federated VTP model training. In federated trajectory clustering, the optimal trajectory scenario discriminator is produced using federated K-means clustering without direct access to private data. In the federated VTP model training, multiple VTP models for specific trajectory scenarios are trained to deal with the influence of non-IID data. Experimental results reveal that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art FL method on both NGSIM and HighD datasets, achieving up to 13.82% convergence acceleration and 12.47% RMSE reduction.