不同人群肝癌的不同病因:年龄-时期-队列分析对发病趋势的影响。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.14309/ctg.0000000000000769
Tian-Wen Chen,Yi-Jun Cheng,Yong-Ying Huang,Zhiqiang Liu,Jing-Feng Liu,Shao-Hua Xie
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景肝癌的发病率在不同人群中呈现出不同的时间趋势,但其根本原因仍不清楚。方法我们使用连接点回归和年龄-时期-队列分析法研究了香港、瑞典和美国自 20 世纪 70 年代至 2021 年肝癌发病率的时间趋势。结果1983-2020年间,香港的肝癌年龄标准化发病率稳步下降(男性平均年百分比变化[AAPC] -2.2%,95%置信区间[CI] -2.8%至-1.7%;女性平均年百分比变化[AAPC] -2.1%,95%置信区间[CI] -3.1%至-1.1%)。1970-2021 年间,瑞典的男性发病率平均每年上升 0.8%(95%CI 为 0.2% 至 1.4%),女性发病率则保持稳定(AAPC 为 0.2%,95%CI 为 -0.9% 至 1.4%)。在美国,1975-2020年男性的发病率每年增加2.1%(95%CI为1.5%至2.8%),女性的发病率每年增加2.1%(95%CI为1.6%至2.5%),但2015-2020年呈下降趋势(男性AAPC为-6.6%,95%CI为-8.3%至-4.9%;女性AAPC为-4.2%,95%CI为-7.5%至-0.5%)。按组织学类型进行的分层分析表明,近年来这种下降仅限于肝细胞癌,而非肝内胆管癌。我们观察到不同年龄组的趋势有明显变化,不同出生组群的趋势也不同。结论自20世纪80年代以来,肝癌发病率在香港有所下降,但在瑞典和美国却有所上升,尽管美国的发病率自2015年以来有所下降。造成这种差异的原因可能是不同人群的病因和预防措施的实施情况不同。
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Different etiological entities of liver cancer across populations: Implications from age-period-cohort analysis on incidence trends.
BACKGROUND The incidence of liver cancer has shown different temporal trends across populations, while the underlying reasons remain unclear. METHODS We examined temporal trends in the incidence of liver cancer in Hong Kong, Sweden, and the United States since the 1970s through 2021 using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS The age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in Hong Kong steadily decreased (average annual percentage change [AAPC] -2.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2.8% to -1.7% in men; AAPC -2.1%, 95%CI -3.1% to -1.1% in women) in 1983-2020. The rate in Sweden increased on average by 0.8% (95%CI 0.2% to 1.4%) per year in men and was stable in women (AAPC 0.2%, 95%CI -0.9% to 1.4%) in 1970-2021. The rate in the United States increased by 2.1% (95%CI 1.5% to 2.8%) per year in men and by 2.1% (95%CI 1.6% to 2.5%) in women in 1975-2020, but decreasing trends were noted in 2015-2020 (AAPC -6.6%, 95%CI -8.3% to -4.9% in men; AAPC -4.2%, 95%CI -7.5% to -0.5% in women). Stratified analysis by histological type showed such decrease in recent years was limited to hepatocellular carcinoma, rather than intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We observed distinct changes in trends across age groups and different trends across birth cohorts. CONCLUSION The incidence of liver cancer has decreased in Hong Kong but increased in Sweden and the United States since the 1980s, despite decreasing incidence in the United States since 2015. Such disparities may be explained by different etiology and implementation of preventive measures across populations.
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来源期刊
Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology
Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
114
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology (CTG), published on behalf of the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG), is a peer-reviewed open access online journal dedicated to innovative clinical work in the field of gastroenterology and hepatology. CTG hopes to fulfill an unmet need for clinicians and scientists by welcoming novel cohort studies, early-phase clinical trials, qualitative and quantitative epidemiologic research, hypothesis-generating research, studies of novel mechanisms and methodologies including public health interventions, and integration of approaches across organs and disciplines. CTG also welcomes hypothesis-generating small studies, methods papers, and translational research with clear applications to human physiology or disease. Colon and small bowel Endoscopy and novel diagnostics Esophagus Functional GI disorders Immunology of the GI tract Microbiology of the GI tract Inflammatory bowel disease Pancreas and biliary tract Liver Pathology Pediatrics Preventative medicine Nutrition/obesity Stomach.
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