GPC/m:机器学习全球降水气候学;准全球、每日和一度空间分辨率

Hiroshi G. Takahashi
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摘要

本文利用机器学习技术介绍了一个新的降水量数据集,该数据集为日降水量,在准全球尺度上的空间分辨率为一度,时间跨度超过 42 年。该数据集的最终目标是提供一个几十年来无间隙的同质日降水量数据集,以适用于气候分析。第一步,利用机器学习技术生成 42 年的日降水量数据。机器学习方法均为监督学习,参考数据为 2001 年至 2020 年的降水估计数据集。三种机器学习方法分别是随机森林、梯度提升决策树和卷积神经网络。输入数据是卫星观测数据和来自再分析的大气环流数据,这些数据根据气候背景知识进行了一定程度的修改。利用训练有素的统计模型,我们预测了 1979 年的降水量,当时全球几乎都没有日降水量数据。本文介绍了详细的程序。已对生成的数据进行了部分评估。然而,还需要从不同角度进行更多评估。本文还讨论了该降水数据集的优缺点。目前,该 GPC/m 降水数据集的版本为 GPC/m-v1-2024。
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GPC/m: Global Precipitation Climatology by Machine Learning; Quasi-global, Daily, and One Degree Spatial Resolution
This paper presents a new precipitation dataset that is daily, has a spatial resolution of one degree on a quasi-global scale, and spans more than 42 years, using machine learning techniques. The ultimate goal of this dataset is to provide a homogeneous daily precipitation dataset for several decades without gaps, which is suitable for climate analysis. As a first step, 42 years of daily precipitation data was generated using machine learning techniques. The machine learning methods are supervised learning, and the reference data are estimated precipitation datasets from 2001 to 2020. The three machine learning methods are random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and convolutional neural networks. The input data are satellite observations and atmospheric circulations from reanalysis, which are somewhat modified based on knowledge of the climatological background. Using the trained statistical models, we predict back to 1979, when daily precipitation data was almost unavailable globally. The detailed procedures are described in this paper. The produced data have been partially evaluated. However, additional evaluations from different perspectives are needed. The advantages and disadvantages of this precipitation dataset are also discussed. Currently, this GPC/m precipitation dataset version is GPC/m-v1-2024.
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