Open-sourced modeling and simulating tools for decision-makers during an emerging pandemic or epidemic – Systematic evaluation of utility and usability: A scoping review update

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic had devastating effects on health systems globally. Emerging infectious diseases and pandemics will persist as a global health threat and preparedness for an evidence based response becomes challenging for decision makers. Epidemiological modeling can and has supported decision-making throughout pandemics. This study provides an update of the review “Publicly available software tools for decision-makers during an emergent epidemic—Systematic evaluation of utility and usability”^1.

Research question

What epidemiological modeling tools for decision-makers are open-sourced available for the usage in emerging epidemics or pandemics and how useful and user-friendly are these tools?

Methods

A scoping review was conducted. We identified relevant studies through a search of peer-reviewed (Medline Ovid, Embase Ovid, PubMed, Cochrane) and gray literature databases, search engines such as Google, searches through stakeholder websites as well as expert consultations.

Results

Of the 66 identified epidemiological modeling tools, 29 were included and qualitatively assessed using five-point-rating scales. The tools showed a good baseline of user-friendliness with variations in assessed components, features and utility. Room for improvement was found, specifically the capability to incorporate external data sources, detailed population descriptions, and geographic resolution.

Discussion

Development efforts should prioritize clear communication of uncertainties and expert review processes. Trainings for specific tools should be considered.

Conclusion

Tool usage can enhance decision-making when adapted to the user's needs and purpose. They should be consulted critically rather than followed blindly.