Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: A superior predictor for incident type 2 diabetes over traditional criteria - NAGALA study.

Aims/introduction: The 2023 Delphi consensus recommended the use of new term, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), aiming conceptual shift from the conventional non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The association between NAFLD and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development is well known. This study aimed to examine the correlation between MASLD and T2DM development, comparing their utility as predictors.

Materials and methods: This retrospective cohort study obtained data from a medical health checkup program conducted at Asahi University Hospital, Japan, between 2004 and 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between MASLD and incident T2DM over 5 years. To compare the predictive utility of NAFLD and MASLD, receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn, followed by area under the curve (AUC) comparisons.

Results: In total, 15,039 participants (59.6% males; median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 44 [38, 50] years) were included. Out of 2,682 participants meeting the criteria for MASLD, 234 individuals (8.7%) developed T2DM. Multivariate analysis revealed a significantly elevated risk of T2DM in MASLD compared with the reference healthy group (without steatotic liver disease or cardiometabolic risk), presenting an OR of 127.00 (95% CI 40.40-399.00, P < 0.001). The concordance rate of diagnosis between NAFLD and MASLD was 98.7%. The AUC values were 0.799 for NAFLD and 0.807 for MASLD, respectively. Comparative analysis of the AUC showed a statistical difference between NAFLD and MASLD (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: MASLD was shown to be a significant risk factor for incident T2DM, exhibiting a potentially higher predictive capacity than conventional NAFLD.