日本职业人群心血管疾病风险预测模型的开发与验证:日本职业健康流行病学合作研究》。

IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI:10.5551/jat.64919
Huan Hu, Tohru Nakagawa, Toru Honda, Shuichiro Yamamoto, Takeshi Kochi, Hiroko Okazaki, Toshiaki Miyamoto, Takayuki Ogasawara, Naoki Gommori, Makoto Yamamoto, Maki Konishi, Yosuke Inoue, Isamu Kabe, Seitaro Dohi, Tetsuya Mizoue
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本研究旨在利用一个大型职业队列的数据建立心血管疾病(CVD)风险模型:方法:利用 96,117 名日本员工(84.0% 为男性)的常规健康检查数据建立了一个风险预测模型,这些员工的年龄在 30-64 岁之间,基线时没有心血管疾病。采用 Cox 比例危险回归模型建立了评估 10 年心血管疾病风险的风险模型。使用辨别度和校准度来评估模型的预测性能,并使用内部验证来检查潜在的过度拟合:结果:在平均 6.7 年(0.1-11.0 年)的随访期间,共确诊 422 例心血管疾病。最终模型包括年龄、吸烟、糖尿病、收缩压、低密度和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平等预测变量,显示出良好的预测能力(哈雷尔 C 统计量,0.796;95% 置信区间,0.775-0.817),观察值和预测值之间的校准效果极佳。内部验证显示过拟合程度极低:结论:所开发的模型可准确预测 10 年心血管疾病风险。结论:所开发的模型可准确预测 10 年心血管疾病风险,由于该模型基于常规健康检查数据,因此可在工作场所轻松实施。还需要进一步的研究来评估所提出的心血管疾病风险模型的外部有效性和可转移性。
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Development and Validation of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model for the Japanese Working Population: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

Aims: This study aimed to develop a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk model using data from a large occupational cohort.

Methods: A risk prediction model was developed using the routine health checkup data of 96,117 Japanese employees (84.0% men) who were 30-64 years of age and had no CVD at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to develop a risk model for assessing the 10-year CVD risk. Measures of discrimination and calibration were used to assess the predictive performance of the model and internal validation was used to examine potential overfitting.

Results: During a mean follow-up period of 6.7 years (range, 0.1-11.0 years), 422 cases of incident CVD were confirmed. The final model, which included predictor variables of age, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, demonstrated a good predictive ability (Harrell's C-statistic, 0.796; 95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.817) with excellent calibration between observed and predicted values. Internal validation revealed minimal overfitting.

Conclusions: The developed model can accurately predict the 10-year CVD risk. Because it is based on routine health checkup data, the prediction model can be easily implemented in the workplace. Further studies are required to assess the external validity and transferability of the proposed CVD risk model.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
15.90%
发文量
271
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: JAT publishes articles focused on all aspects of research on atherosclerosis, vascular biology, thrombosis, lipid and metabolism.
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