Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival of patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma accepting surgical resection: a real-world analysis based on the SEER database.

Background: Only a small percentage of patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can undergo surgical resection (SR) therapy while the prognosis of patients with large HCC is poor. However, innovations in surgical techniques have expanded the scope of surgical interventions accessible to patients with large HCC. Currently, most of the existing nomograms are focused on patients with large HCC, and research on patients who undergo surgery is limited. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with large HCC who will undergo SR.

Methods: The study retrieved data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database encompassing patients with HCC between 2010 and 2015. Patients with large HCC accepting SR were eligible participants. Patients were randomly divided into the training (70%) and internal validation (30%) groups. Patients from Air Force Medical Center between 2012 and 2019 who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were used as external datasets. Demographic information such as sex, age, race, etc. and clinical characteristics such as chemotherapy, histological grade, fibrosis score, etc. were analyzed. CSS was the primary endpoint. All-subset regression and Cox regression were used to determine the relevant variables required for constructing the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to validate the nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to assess the CSS of patients with HCC in different risk groups.

Results: In total, 1,209 eligible patients from SEER database and 21 eligible patients from Air Force Medical Center were included. Most patients were male and accepted surgery to lymph node. The independent prognostic factors included sex, histological grade, T stage, chemotherapy, α-fetoprotein (AFP) level, and vascular invasion. The CSS rate for training cohort at 12, 24, and 36 months were 0.726, 0.731, and 0.725 respectively. The CSS rate for internal validation cohort at 12, 24, and 36 months were 0.785, 0.752, and 0.734 respectively. The CSS rate for external validation cohort at 12, 24, and 36 months were 0.937, 0.929, and 0.913 respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the newly established nomogram and real-world observations. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed significantly unfavorable CSS in the high-risk group (P<0.001). DCA demonstrated favorable clinical applicability of the nomogram.

Conclusions: The nomogram constructed based on sex, histological grade, T stage, chemotherapy and AFP levels can predict the CSS in patients with large HCC accepting SR, which may aid in clinical decision-making and treatment.