源自 CanESM5 的海浪预测 - 对粗分辨率气候模式的考虑

IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究针对两种排放情景(SSP5-8.5 和 SSP2-4.5)以及世纪中叶和世纪末的两个时段,提出了第一套 CanESM5 驱动的海浪预测。虽然像 CanESM5 这样的粗分辨率气候模式对发展海洋波浪预测的吸引力可能较小,但需要它们的结果来探索 CMIP6 预测中模式间不确定性的全部范围。考虑到粗分辨率的限制,波浪模拟采用了一种拟议的计算高效的两步偏差校正方法,包括:(i)校正海洋波浪模式中风到波浪的能量传递,以减少粗分辨率导致的极端低估;(ii)用多元偏差校正法校正表面风的偏差,以减少剩余的系统偏差。结果表明,与最先进的再分析和卫星数据相比,总体性能良好。预测结果加深了人们对未来波浪条件变化的了解,证实了之前报告的全球尺度变化,如热带太平洋东部波浪较高,北大西洋波浪较低。与基于 CMIP5 的最新波浪集合相比,它们还为受海冰条件影响的地区提供了更详细的信息,这对北极地区这一海洋波浪变化的热点地区至关重要。此外,虽然在 SSP5-8.5 条件下,最大的变化通常出现在本世纪末,但本研究显示,对于某些变量和地区,如平均波浪周期,由于相互竞争的驱动因素,在较低的变暖水平下会出现更大的变化。最后,本文提出的预测可以为正在进行的基于 CMIP6 的大型多模式波浪预测集合的生成工作做出贡献。
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CanESM5-derived ocean wave projections — Considerations for coarse resolution climate models
This study presents the first set of CanESM5-driven wave projections for two emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) and two time periods for mid- and end-century. While coarse resolution climate models, like CanESM5, might be less attractive for development of ocean wave projections, their results are needed to explore the full range of inter-model uncertainty in CMIP6 projections. Considering the coarse resolution limitation, wave simulations were obtained with a proposed computationally efficient 2-step bias-correction approach that consists of (i) calibrating the wind-to-wave energy transfer in the ocean wave model to reduce the underestimation of extremes resulting from coarse resolution, and (ii) bias-correcting the surface winds with a multivariate bias-correction to reduce remaining systematic biases. Results showed overall good performance in comparison with state of the art reanalysis and satellite data. Resulting projections provide increased understanding of future changes in wave conditions, confirming previously reported global-scale changes, such as higher waves in the eastern tropical Pacific and lower waves in the North Atlantic. They also provide more detailed information for areas affected by sea ice conditions in comparison to the latest CMIP5-based wave ensembles, which is critical for the Arctic region, a hotspot for ocean wave changes. Moreover, while the largest changes are typically seen by the end-century under SSP5-8.5, this study reveals that for some variables and areas, such as the mean wave period, larger changes occur for lower warming levels as a result of competing driving factors. Finally, the presented projections can contribute to ongoing efforts to generate a large multi-model ensemble of wave projections based on CMIP6.
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来源期刊
Ocean Modelling
Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
9.40%
发文量
86
审稿时长
19.6 weeks
期刊介绍: The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.
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