减少钩虫感染的战略方法:最佳控制和成本效益分析

Z. Chazuka , C.W. Chukwu , D. Mathebula , E. Mudimu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类钩虫感染仍然是对公共卫生的严重威胁,尤其是在钩虫高度流行的地区。与这种感染相关的高死亡率强调了采取有效控制措施和干预策略遏制其传播的迫切需要。本文研究了一个具有饱和发病率的非线性确定性钩虫模型。该模型表现出独特的无病均衡和流行均衡,并计算和解释了繁殖数量。敏感性分析表明,提高传播率 β、孵化率 α、环境中排泄的虫卵数 Ne 和虫卵排泄率 γ 会显著增加繁殖数量。在此分析的基础上,我们将模型扩展到考虑存在三种与时间相关的控制时的最优控制,即卫生、预防性化疗和穿鞋。我们定义了需要最小化的目标函数,并利用庞特里亚金最大原则建立和证明了最优控制的必要条件。我们采用单因子方差分析来评估不断实施控制措施对感染人数的影响。数值模拟也表明,在采取所有控制措施的情况下,钩虫感染是可以控制的。然而,成本效益分析表明,将穿鞋控制与预防性化疗相结合是控制钩虫感染最具成本效益的措施。上述结果对公共卫生政策,特别是低收入地区的公共卫生政策具有重大意义。
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Strategic approaches to mitigating Hookworm infection: An optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis
Human hookworm infection remains a serious threat to public health, particularly in highly endemic regions. The high mortality rate associated with this infection emphasizes the urgent need for effective control measures and intervention strategies to curb its spread. A nonlinear deterministic hookworm model with saturated incidence is investigated in this paper. The model exhibits a unique disease-free and endemic equilibria, and the reproduction number is computed and explained. Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing the transmission rate, β, the hatching rate, α, the number of eggs excreted within the environment, Ne, and the rate of excretion of the eggs, γ, significantly increases the reproduction number. Based on this analysis, we extend the model to consider optimal control in the presence of three time-dependent controls namely: sanitation, preventative chemotherapy, and shoe-wearing. We define an objective function to be minimized and the conditions necessary for the optimal control are established and proved using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. We present a one-way analysis of variance to evaluate the impact of constant implementation of the control measures on the number of infected individuals. Numerical simulations also show that hookworm infection can be contained in the presence of all control measures. However, a cost-effectiveness analysis shows that combining shoe-wearing control with preventative chemotherapy is the most cost-effective measure for controlling hookworm infection. The results presented hold substantial implications for public health policy, especially in low-income regions.
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来源期刊
Results in Control and Optimization
Results in Control and Optimization Mathematics-Control and Optimization
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
51
审稿时长
91 days
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