Timing and characteristics of co-seismic surface ruptures in the Yadong rift, southern Tibet

The Yadong-Gulu rift (YGR) is the most prominent and seismically active of the seven main ∼ NS-trending rifts in southern Tibet. Although the morphology of the southern YGR clearly indicates it has witnessed large earthquakes in the past, and despite its significant late Quaternary throw rates of ∼1 mm/yr, no large historical or instrumental earthquakes have been reported, including in the southernmost Pagri half-graben, in contrast to the northern part of the rift which is highly seismically active. Here, geomorphic characteristics helped us constrain the timing of a paleoearthquake that produced surface ruptures along the Pagri half-graben, used to document its past activity and evaluate its seismic hazard. We demonstrate that the co-seismic surface ruptures extend for ∼65 km along the Yadong normal fault, with a maximum vertical displacement ranging from 2 to 4.0 ± 0.1 m. Based on empirical relationships between magnitude, surface rupture length, and fault displacement, we suggest that this event may correspond to a M_w6.9–7.2 earthquake. Combined with previous studies, our radiocarbon (¹⁴C) and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages from three pits within the earthquake wedge across the surface ruptures constrain the paleoearthquake timing at 3470-2056 years BP. We suggest that the southern YGR currently has a high regional seismic hazard for a M_w6.8–7.1 earthquake, considering the significant throw rates and long timespan since the last strong event. Furthermore, we suggest that such different seismic activity and throw/extension rates between the southern and northern YGR may be explained by different upper crustal rheology behavior and mid-crustal structure.