Determining Long-term Prostate Cancer Outcomes for Active Surveillance Patients Without Early Disease Progression: Implications for Slowing or Stopping Surveillance.

Background and objective: Active surveillance (AS) of prostate cancer (PCa) is the standard of care for low-grade disease, but there is limited guidance on tailoring protocols for stable patients. We investigated long-term outcomes for patients without initial progression and risk factors for upgrade.

Methods: Men on AS with Gleason grade group (GG) 1 PCa on three serial biopsies, ≥5 yr without progression, and ≥10 yr of follow-up were included. Outcomes were upgrade (GG ≥2), major upgrade (GG ≥3), progression to treatment, metastasis, PCa-specific survival, and overall survival. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the associations between patient characteristics and risk of upgrade.

Key findings and limitations: A total of 774 men met the inclusion criteria. At 10, 12, and 15 yr, upgrade-free survival rates were 56%, 45%, and 21%; major upgrade-free survival rates were 88%, 83%, and 61%; treatment-free survival rates were 86%, 83%, and 73%; metastasis-free survival rates were 99%, 99%, and 98%; and overall survival rates were 98%, 96%, and 95%, respectively. PCa-specific survival was 100% at 15 yr. On a multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis, age, body mass index (BMI), and biopsy core positivity were associated with upgrade (all p < 0.01), whereas age and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density were associated with major upgrade.

Conclusions and clinical implications: Patients without progression for 5 yr on AS had modest rates of upgrade and low rates of metastasis, and mortality at 15 yr of follow-up. Year of diagnosis, older age, increased BMI, and increased biopsy core positivity were associated with upgrade, whereas older age and greater PSA density were associated with an increased risk of major upgrade. A subset of these patients may benefit from deintensification of AS protocols.

Patient summary: There are little reported data or clinical guidelines for patients with PCa who are stable for many years on active surveillance (AS). We show, in a large cohort, that PCa patients without progression for 5 yr on AS have modest rates of upgrade and very low rates of metastasis, and mortality rates at 15 yr of follow-up, and that older age, increased body mass index, and increased PCa volume are associated with an increased likelihood of future upgrade. This study supports continued AS in this patient population and deintensification in select patients.