Prediction of Snatch and Clean and Jerk Performance From Physical Performance Measures in Elite Male Weightlifters.

Abstract: Sandau, I and Kipp, K. Prediction of snatch and clean and jerk performance from physical performance measures in elite male weightlifters. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2024-This study aimed to build a valid model to predict maximal weightlifting competition performance using ordinary least squares linear regression (OLR) and penalized (Ridge) linear regression (penLR) in 29 elite male weightlifters. One repetition maximum (1RM) or 3RM test results of assistant exercises were used as predictors. Maximal performance data of competition and assistant exercises were collected during a macrocycle in preparation for a competition. One repetition maximum snatch pull, 3RM back squat, 1RM overhead press, and body mass were used to predict the 1RM snatch; and 1RM clean pull, 3RM front squat, 1RM overhead press, and body mass were used to predict the 1RM clean and jerk. Model validation was performed using cross-validation (CV) and external validation (EV; random unknown dataset) for the coefficient of determination and root mean square error (RMSE). Results revealed that penLR models present more plausible output in the relative importance of highly correlated predictors. Of note, the 1RM snatch pull is the most relevant predictor for the 1RM snatch, whereas the 1RM clean pull and 3RM front squat are the most relevant predictors for the 1RM clean and jerk. Validation-based absolute predictive error (RMSE) ranged between ≈ 3-9 kg for the 1RM snatch and ≈ 3-7 kg for the 1RM clean and jerk, depending on the model (OLR vs. penLR) and validation procedure (CV vs. EV). In conclusion, penLR models should be used over OLR models to analyze highly correlated predictors because of more plausible model coefficients and smaller predictive errors.