Joana Ribeiro, Marta Camacho, Kirsten M Scott, Julia C Greenland, Jonathan R Evans, David P Breen, Ruwani S Wijeyekoon, Roger A Barker, Caroline H Williams-Gray
{"title":"帕金森病 5 年预后模型的验证。","authors":"Joana Ribeiro, Marta Camacho, Kirsten M Scott, Julia C Greenland, Jonathan R Evans, David P Breen, Ruwani S Wijeyekoon, Roger A Barker, Caroline H Williams-Gray","doi":"10.1002/mdc3.14215","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Validation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score >0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease-modifying trial.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This 5-year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4 years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease-modifying trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":19029,"journal":{"name":"Movement Disorders Clinical Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Validation of a 5-Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease.\",\"authors\":\"Joana Ribeiro, Marta Camacho, Kirsten M Scott, Julia C Greenland, Jonathan R Evans, David P Breen, Ruwani S Wijeyekoon, Roger A Barker, Caroline H Williams-Gray\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/mdc3.14215\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Validation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score >0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease-modifying trial.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This 5-year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4 years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease-modifying trials.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19029,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Movement Disorders Clinical Practice\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Movement Disorders Clinical Practice\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/mdc3.14215\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Movement Disorders Clinical Practice","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/mdc3.14215","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Validation of a 5-Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease.
Background: A simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period.
Objectives: To validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points.
Methods: Validation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes.
Results: The model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score >0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease-modifying trial.
Conclusions: This 5-year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4 years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease-modifying trials.
期刊介绍:
Movement Disorders Clinical Practice- is an online-only journal committed to publishing high quality peer reviewed articles related to clinical aspects of movement disorders which broadly include phenomenology (interesting case/case series/rarities), investigative (for e.g- genetics, imaging), translational (phenotype-genotype or other) and treatment aspects (clinical guidelines, diagnostic and treatment algorithms)