Evaluating 4Kscore's role in predicting progression on active surveillance for prostate cancer independently of clinical information and PIRADS score.

Background: 4Kscore is used to aid the decision for prostate biopsy, however its role in active surveillance (AS) has not been investigated in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based protocol. Our objective was to assess the association between 4Kscore and progression in men undergoing AS on a prospective MRI-based protocol.

Methods: This was a single-institution, single-arm, non-therapeutic, interventional trial of 166 men with biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer enrolled between 2014-2020. Patients were placed on a trial-mandated AS protocol including yearly multiparametric (mp)MRI, prostate biopsy, and 4Kscore followed for 48 months after diagnosis. We analyzed protocol-defined and grade progression at confirmatory and subsequent surveillance biopsies.

Results: Out of 166 patients, 83 (50%) men progressed per protocol and of them 41 (24.7% of whole cohort) progressed by grade. At confirmatory biopsy, men with a baseline 4Kscore ≥ 20% had a higher risk of grade progression compared to those with 4Kscore < 20% (OR = 4.04, 95% CI: 1.05-15.59, p = 0.043) after adjusting for National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk and baseline PIRADS score. At surveillance biopsies, most recent 4Kscore ≥ 20% significantly predicted per protocol (OR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.03-6.63, p = 0.044) and grade progression (OR = 5.13, 95% CI: 1.63-16.11, p = 0.005).

Conclusions: For patients on AS, baseline 4Kscore predicted grade progression at confirmatory biopsy, and most recent 4Kscore predicted per-protocol and grade progression at surveillance biopsy.