Incidence, Timing and Social Correlates of the Development of Opioid Use Disorder Among Clients Seeking Treatment for an Alcohol Use Problem: Changes Over the Three Waves of the Opioid Epidemic.

Introduction: Opioid use disorder (OUD) and opioid overdose (OD) have shown to be strongly associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD). As a potential target population for secondary prevention, we examined the incidence and timing of OUD/OD among clients seeking treatment for alcohol problems and how this has changed over the three waves of the opioid epidemic corresponding to the primary opioid involved in fatal ODs, prescription painkillers (2007-2009), heroin (2010-2012), and fentanyl (2013-2016). We also examined social determinants of health as predictors of OUD/OD.

Methods: Clients (N = 59,186) presenting for a first treatment for alcohol use problems were extracted from the Client Data System (CDS) of the New York State Office of Addiction Services and Support (OASAS) and New York State (NYS) Medicaid Data Warehouse. Using this cohort, we employed the Kaplan-Meier method to determine the survival probabilities for patients admitted in each of the three waves of the epidemic.

Results: Patients in Cohort 3 (2013-2016) were diagnosed with OUD/OD more rapidly than patients in Cohort 1 (2007-2009) or Cohort 2 (2010-2012), although the overall estimated OUD/OD rate was comparable across the three cohorts.

Discussion: These findings provide a useful estimate of the incidence and the expected time frame of an opioid use disorder in clients with an alcohol use problem. Moreover, it suggests that as the opioid epidemic progressed, OUD/OD developed more rapidly but the overall prevalence did not increase.