Computed tomography-based multi-organ radiomics nomogram model for predicting the risk of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis.

Background: Radiomics has been used in the diagnosis of cirrhosis and prediction of its associated complications. However, most current studies predict the risk of esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) based on image features at a single level, which results in incomplete data. Few studies have explored the use of global multi-organ radiomics for non-invasive prediction of EVB secondary to cirrhosis.

Aim: To develop a model based on clinical and multi-organ radiomic features to predict the risk of first-instance secondary EVB in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods: In this study, 208 patients with cirrhosis were retrospectively evaluated and randomly split into training (n = 145) and validation (n = 63) cohorts. Three areas were chosen as regions of interest for extraction of multi-organ radiomic features: The whole liver, whole spleen, and lower esophagus-gastric fundus region. In the training cohort, radiomic score (Rad-score) was created by screening radiomic features using the inter-observer and intra-observer correlation coefficients and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. Independent clinical risk factors were selected using multivariate logistic regression analyses. The radiomic features and clinical risk variables were combined to create a new radiomics-clinical model (RC model). The established models were validated using the validation cohort.

Results: The RC model yielded the best predictive performance and accurately predicted the EVB risk of patients with cirrhosis. Ascites, portal vein thrombosis, and plasma prothrombin time were identified as independent clinical risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for the RC model, Rad-score (liver + spleen + esophagus), Rad-score (liver), Rad-score (spleen), Rad-score (esophagus), and clinical model in the training cohort were 0.951, 0.930, 0.801, 0.831, 0.864, and 0.727, respectively. The corresponding AUC values in the validation cohort were 0.930, 0.886, 0.763, 0.792, 0.857, and 0.692.

Conclusion: In patients with cirrhosis, combined multi-organ radiomics and clinical model can be used to non-invasively predict the probability of the first secondary EVB.