[利用融合类堆叠算法预测杭州臭氧浓度]。

Q2 Environmental Science 环境科学 Pub Date : 2024-09-08 DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202310221
Hong-Zhao Dong, Hong-Mei Guo, Fang Ying
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引用次数: 0

摘要

针对单一机器学习模型对臭氧日平均浓度预测精度较低的问题,提出了一种基于融合类堆叠算法(FSOP)的臭氧浓度预测方法。提出了一种基于融合类堆积算法(FSOP)的臭氧浓度预测方法,该方法将统计方法普通最小二乘法(OLS该算法将统计方法普通最小二乘法(OLS)与机器学习算法相结合,综合了不同学习器的优点,提高了臭氧浓度预测模型的预测精度。基于Stacking算法原理,采用杭州市2017年1月至2022年12月臭氧日最大8h平均浓度观测数据和气象再分析数据。首先,基于光梯度提升机(LightGBM)算法、长短期记忆模型(LSTM)和 Informer 模型分别建立了具体的臭氧浓度预测模型。然后,将上述模型的预测结果作为元特征,利用 OLS 算法得到臭氧浓度的预测表达式,以拟合观测到的臭氧浓度。结果表明,结合类堆叠算法的模型预测精度有所提高,对臭氧浓度的拟合效果较好。其中,R2、RMSE 和 MAE 分别为 0.84、19.65 μg-m-3 和 15.50 μg-m-3,与单一机器学习模型相比,预测精度提高了约 8%。
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[Predicting Ozone Concentration in Hangzhou with the Fusion Class Stacking Algorithm].

Aiming at the problem that the single machine learning model has low prediction accuracy of daily average ozone concentration, an ozone concentration prediction method based on the fusion class Stacking algorithm (FSOP) was proposed, which combined the statistical method ordinary least squares (OLS) with machine learning algorithms and improved the prediction accuracy of the ozone concentration prediction model by integrating the advantages of different learners. Based on the principle of the Stacking algorithm, the observation data of the daily maximum 8h ozone average concentration and meteorological reanalysis data in Hangzhou from January 2017 to December 2022 were used. Firstly, the specific ozone concentration prediction models based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm, long short-term memory model (LSTM), and Informer model were established, respectively. Then, the prediction results of the above models were used as meta-features, and the OLS algorithm was used to obtain the prediction expression of ozone concentration to fit the observed ozone concentration. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model combined with the class Stacking algorithm was improved, and the fitting effect of ozone concentration was better. Among them, R2, RMSE, and MAE were 0.84, 19.65 μg·m-3, and 15.50 μg·m-3, respectively, which improved the prediction accuracy by approximately 8% compared with that of the single machine learning model.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
期刊介绍:
期刊最新文献
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