Ellicott C Matthay, Rafael Charris, Jennifer Ahern, Dorie E Apollonio, Victoria Jent, Laurie M Jacobs, Shelley Jung, Laura A Schmidt, Paul Gruenewald
{"title":"加利福尼亚州大麻和酒类销售点密度与袭击伤害的互动关联:时空分析。","authors":"Ellicott C Matthay, Rafael Charris, Jennifer Ahern, Dorie E Apollonio, Victoria Jent, Laurie M Jacobs, Shelley Jung, Laura A Schmidt, Paul Gruenewald","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae384","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recreational cannabis outlets may influence rates of interpersonal violence, but research has yielded inconsistent findings. Modification by alcohol outlet density may help explain inconsistencies. We estimated the impacts of recreational cannabis outlets on neighborhood-level assault injury rates in California and evaluated whether alcohol outlet density moderated these associations. We applied Bayesian spatiotemporal analyses to ZIP code-level statewide data on alcohol outlets, recreational cannabis outlets, and injuries and deaths due to firearm and nonfirearm assault, 2017-2019, accounting for confounders and spatial autocorrelation. Using the model posteriors, we estimated parameters corresponding to hypothetical shifts in outlet densities, overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. If recreational cannabis outlets were never introduced, we estimated that nonfirearm assault injuries would have been 1.63 per 100,000 lower (95%CI: -3.08, 0.01) but we observed no association with firearm assault injuries (RD per 100,000: -0.07; 95%CI: -0.34, 0.21). These associations did not depend on alcohol outlet density, but a hypothetical 20% reduction in alcohol outlet densities was associated with fewer firearm (RD per 100,000: -1.89; 95%CI: -0.46, 0.09) and nonfirearm (RD per 100,000: -5.67; 95%CI: -7.44, -3.95) assault injuries. The introduction of recreational cannabis outlets may have contributed to a small increase in nonfirearm assault injuries.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Interactive associations of cannabis and alcohol outlet densities with assault injuries in California: A spatiotemporal analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Ellicott C Matthay, Rafael Charris, Jennifer Ahern, Dorie E Apollonio, Victoria Jent, Laurie M Jacobs, Shelley Jung, Laura A Schmidt, Paul Gruenewald\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/aje/kwae384\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Recreational cannabis outlets may influence rates of interpersonal violence, but research has yielded inconsistent findings. Modification by alcohol outlet density may help explain inconsistencies. We estimated the impacts of recreational cannabis outlets on neighborhood-level assault injury rates in California and evaluated whether alcohol outlet density moderated these associations. We applied Bayesian spatiotemporal analyses to ZIP code-level statewide data on alcohol outlets, recreational cannabis outlets, and injuries and deaths due to firearm and nonfirearm assault, 2017-2019, accounting for confounders and spatial autocorrelation. Using the model posteriors, we estimated parameters corresponding to hypothetical shifts in outlet densities, overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. If recreational cannabis outlets were never introduced, we estimated that nonfirearm assault injuries would have been 1.63 per 100,000 lower (95%CI: -3.08, 0.01) but we observed no association with firearm assault injuries (RD per 100,000: -0.07; 95%CI: -0.34, 0.21). These associations did not depend on alcohol outlet density, but a hypothetical 20% reduction in alcohol outlet densities was associated with fewer firearm (RD per 100,000: -1.89; 95%CI: -0.46, 0.09) and nonfirearm (RD per 100,000: -5.67; 95%CI: -7.44, -3.95) assault injuries. The introduction of recreational cannabis outlets may have contributed to a small increase in nonfirearm assault injuries.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7472,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"American journal of epidemiology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"American journal of epidemiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwae384\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American journal of epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwae384","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
休闲大麻销售点可能会影响人际暴力的发生率,但研究结果并不一致。酒类销售点密度的改变可能有助于解释这种不一致。我们估算了加利福尼亚州休闲大麻销售点对邻里层面袭击伤害率的影响,并评估了酒类销售点密度是否调节了这些关联。我们将贝叶斯时空分析应用于 2017-2019 年关于酒类销售点、休闲大麻销售点以及枪械和非枪械攻击伤亡的 ZIP 代码级全州数据,并考虑了混杂因素和空间自相关性。利用模型后验,我们估算了与销售点密度的假设变化相对应的参数,包括总体参数以及按年龄、性别和种族/族裔划分的参数。如果从未引入娱乐性大麻销售点,我们估计非枪支袭击伤害事故将减少 1.63 起/100,000(95%CI:-3.08,0.01),但我们观察到与枪支袭击伤害事故没有关联(RD/100,000:-0.07;95%CI:-0.34,0.21)。这些关联并不取决于酒类销售点的密度,但假设酒类销售点密度降低 20%,则枪支(RD/100,000:-1.89;95%CI:-0.46, 0.09)和非枪支(RD/100,000:-5.67;95%CI:-7.44, -3.95)攻击伤害的数量会减少。娱乐性大麻销售点的引入可能导致了非火器攻击伤害的小幅增长。
Interactive associations of cannabis and alcohol outlet densities with assault injuries in California: A spatiotemporal analysis.
Recreational cannabis outlets may influence rates of interpersonal violence, but research has yielded inconsistent findings. Modification by alcohol outlet density may help explain inconsistencies. We estimated the impacts of recreational cannabis outlets on neighborhood-level assault injury rates in California and evaluated whether alcohol outlet density moderated these associations. We applied Bayesian spatiotemporal analyses to ZIP code-level statewide data on alcohol outlets, recreational cannabis outlets, and injuries and deaths due to firearm and nonfirearm assault, 2017-2019, accounting for confounders and spatial autocorrelation. Using the model posteriors, we estimated parameters corresponding to hypothetical shifts in outlet densities, overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. If recreational cannabis outlets were never introduced, we estimated that nonfirearm assault injuries would have been 1.63 per 100,000 lower (95%CI: -3.08, 0.01) but we observed no association with firearm assault injuries (RD per 100,000: -0.07; 95%CI: -0.34, 0.21). These associations did not depend on alcohol outlet density, but a hypothetical 20% reduction in alcohol outlet densities was associated with fewer firearm (RD per 100,000: -1.89; 95%CI: -0.46, 0.09) and nonfirearm (RD per 100,000: -5.67; 95%CI: -7.44, -3.95) assault injuries. The introduction of recreational cannabis outlets may have contributed to a small increase in nonfirearm assault injuries.
期刊介绍:
The American Journal of Epidemiology is the oldest and one of the premier epidemiologic journals devoted to the publication of empirical research findings, opinion pieces, and methodological developments in the field of epidemiologic research.
It is a peer-reviewed journal aimed at both fellow epidemiologists and those who use epidemiologic data, including public health workers and clinicians.