Conventional machine learning-based prediction models did not outperform the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool.

Background: Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is a major cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool (IIgAN-PT) predicts IgAN prognosis, but improvement in the prediction performance using machine learning (ML)-based methods is needed.

Methods: We analyzed 4,425 biopsy-confirmed patients with IgAN and ≥6 months of follow-up from nine tertiary university hospitals in Korea. The study population was divided into development and validation cohorts. Using the collected 87 clinicodemographic and pathological variables, ML-based prediction models for ESKD or estimated glomerular filtration rate were constructed: 1) the conventional CatBoost model, 2) the optimized CatBoost model with Cox proportional hazards, 3) the deep Cox proportional hazards model, and 4) the deep Cox mixture model. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots were used to investigate the discriminative and calibration performance of the models, which were then compared with those of the IIgAN-PT full model.

Results: The full model showed excellent performance (AUC [95% confidence interval] for 5-year outcome, 0.896 [0.8530.940]), with acceptable calibration results. The ML-based models showed good performance in predicting adverse kidney outcomes and revealed acceptable discrimination performance in the external validation (AUC [95% confidence interval] for the 5-year outcome: 1) 0.829 [0.791-0.866]; 2) 0.847 [0.804-0.890]; 3) 0.823 [0.784-0.862]; and 4) 0.832 [0.794-0.870]), although they underestimated the external validation cohort risks. With the validation data, the overall performance of the IIgAN-PT was non-inferior to that of the ML-based model. Conclusions: Our ML-based models showed good performance in predicting adverse kidney outcomes in patients with IgAN but they did not outperform the IIgAN-PT.