{"title":"未来预期寿命的乐观与悲观情景。","authors":"Dmitri Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis","doi":"10.1038/s43587-024-00722-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There was a radical increase in record human life expectancy during the 20th century. A study by Olshansky et al., however, now suggests that similar progress in the 21st century is unlikely. Although further advances will be difficult to achieve, more optimistic alternative scenarios should also be considered that rely on historical evidence and experiences of vanguard groups at the subnational level.","PeriodicalId":94150,"journal":{"name":"Nature aging","volume":"4 11","pages":"1524-1526"},"PeriodicalIF":17.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Optimistic versus pessimistic scenarios for future life expectancy\",\"authors\":\"Dmitri Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s43587-024-00722-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There was a radical increase in record human life expectancy during the 20th century. A study by Olshansky et al., however, now suggests that similar progress in the 21st century is unlikely. Although further advances will be difficult to achieve, more optimistic alternative scenarios should also be considered that rely on historical evidence and experiences of vanguard groups at the subnational level.\",\"PeriodicalId\":94150,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature aging\",\"volume\":\"4 11\",\"pages\":\"1524-1526\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":17.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature aging\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00722-z\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CELL BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature aging","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00722-z","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CELL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Optimistic versus pessimistic scenarios for future life expectancy
There was a radical increase in record human life expectancy during the 20th century. A study by Olshansky et al., however, now suggests that similar progress in the 21st century is unlikely. Although further advances will be difficult to achieve, more optimistic alternative scenarios should also be considered that rely on historical evidence and experiences of vanguard groups at the subnational level.