Prognostic indicators in patients with isolated thoracic trauma: A retrospective cross-sectional study.

Background: Thoracic trauma is a significant cause of mortality, especially among those arriving at hospitals. This study explores the associations between mortality, the shock index (SI), and specific metabolic and biochemical markers in patients with isolated thoracic trauma.

Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study included all consecutive adult patients presenting with isolated thoracic trauma to a high-volume emergency department from January 2019 to December 2023. The predictive capability of SI levels and selected biomarkers upon admission for estimating mortality was assessed by determining the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Optimal cutoff values were determined using the Youden index method.

Results: The study involved 352 patients, with 285 (81%) being males and an average age of 50.0±17.7 years. The mortality rate was 9.6%. Mortality was significantly associated with higher shock index (odds ratio [OR]: 14.02, [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.847-0.916], AUC=0.885, p=0.001), glucose/potassium ratio (OR: 1.24 [95% CI 1.14-1.35], AUC=0.869, p<0.001), and lactate levels (OR: 4.30 [95% CI 2.29-8.07], AUC=0.832, p<0.001). The optimal cutoff values determined for the shock index, glucose/potassium ratio, ionized calcium, and lactate were 1.02 (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity 69.5%; positive predictive value [PPV], 24.8; negative predictive value [NPV], 99.1), 36.85 (sensitivity, 76.5%; specificity, 87.7%; PPV, 40.0; NPV, 97.2), 1.23 (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity, 56.0%; PPV, 18.6; NPV, 98.9), and 1.98 (sensitivity, 70.6%; specificity, 80.5%; PPV, 27.9; NPV, 96.2), respectively.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that higher shock index, glucose/potassium ratio, and lactate levels are significantly associated with increased mortality in patients with isolated thoracic trauma. These findings suggest that these markers can be effective prognostic indicators, potentially guiding clinical decision-making and improving patient outcomes.