Extreme weather events and disruptions to HIV services: a systematic review.

Background: Extreme weather events pose a risk to health and disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, such as people living with HIV. We aimed to investigate the effects of extreme weather events on HIV testing uptake, HIV treatment and care, and HIV transmission.

Methods: For this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, and PsycINFO for peer-reviewed studies published between database inception and Aug 31, 2023. Eligible studies were English-language qualitative, quantitative observational (retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional, longitudinal, case-control, and cohort), and mixed-method studies, and randomised controlled trials related to HIV and extreme weather events. We excluded reviews, mathematical models, and case reports. After exporting the search results, two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts of identified articles, reviewing the full text of those that met the inclusion criteria. We used systems thinking to develop a framework linking extreme weather events and HIV and summarised the results using thematic narrative synthesis.

Findings: Of the 6126 studies identified by the search, 27 met the inclusion criteria and were eligible for analysis, of which 19 were quantitative, six were qualitative, and two were mixed-method studies. We identified five main themes linking extreme weather events to HIV: economic and livelihood conditions (12 studies), psychosocial factors (19 studies), infrastructure damage and operational challenges (17 studies), migration and displacement (ten studies), and associated medical conditions and health-care needs (12 studies). We showed how these themes interact in complex ways, resulting in a reduction in uptake of HIV testing, interruption of HIV care and subsequent disease progression, altered risk behaviours, and an increased prevalence of HIV.

Interpretation: Extreme weather events are associated with disruptions to HIV services. Owing to the design of the included studies, we could not establish a causal relationship between extreme weather events and HIV incidence, highlighting a research gap. Appropriate adaptations and mitigation policies that protect the health and wellbeing of people living with HIV during and after extreme weather events are warranted. Such actions will be crucial to achieving the UNAIDS goal of ending HIV as a public health threat by 2030.

Funding: None.