A Novel CT-Based Fracture Risk Prediction Model for COPD Patients.

Rationale and objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a novel computed tomography (CT)-based fracture risk assessment model (FRCT) specifically tailored for patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis encompassing a cohort of 284 COPD patients, extracting data on demographics, clinical profiles, pulmonary function tests, and CT-based bone quantification metrics. The Boruta feature selection algorithm was employed to identify key variables for model construction, resulting in a user-friendly nomogram.

Results: Our analysis revealed that 37.32% of the patients suffered fragility fractures post-follow-up. The FRCT model, integrating age, cancellous bone volume, average cancellous bone density, high-density lipoprotein levels, and prior fracture incidence, demonstrated superior predictive accuracy over the conventional fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), with a C-index of 0.773 in the training group and 0.797 in the validation group. Calibration assessments via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed the model's excellent fit, and decision curve analysis underscored the FRCT model's substantial positive net benefit.

Conclusion: The FRCT model, leveraging opportunistic CT screening, offers a highly accurate and personalized approach to fracture risk prediction in COPD patients, surpassing the capabilities of existing tools. This model is poised to become an indispensable asset for clinicians in managing osteoporotic fracture risks within the COPD population.