Mechanism of online public opinion formation in major risk events in China: A qualitative comparative analysis

Understanding societal attitudes toward major risk events after they occur poses a significant challenge for governments. This study employs fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine 88 cases of major risk events in China from 2019 to 2023, categorized into natural disasters, accidents, social security threats, and public health crises. We propose an integrated theoretical framework combining information ecology theory and social mentality theory, aiming to uncover the driving pathways that shape positive and negative online social mentalities during these events. The findings reveal the following insights: (1) Media and government significantly influence online community attitudes during major natural disasters. (2) In major accidents, the social environment predominantly shapes stable aspects of societal mentality, yet media and government also adapt dynamically, influencing online societal attitudes accordingly. (3) Major social security events exhibit a diverse trajectory in online social mentality, underscoring the intricate factors affecting public sentiment. The study emphasizes the role of free agents in generating negative online attitudes. (4) During major public health crises, the scale of the event and media coverage exert considerable influence, with media responsiveness varying with shifts in event magnitude. Furthermore, coordinated ecological factors influence the trajectory of online societal attitude changes. These findings offer valuable insights and strategies for managing public opinion during significant risk events.