{"title":"椭圆分布的双变量尾部条件共期望","authors":"Roy Cerqueti , Arsen Palestini","doi":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.09.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we consider a random vector <span><math><mi>X</mi><mo>=</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><msub><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> following a multivariate Elliptical distribution and we provide an explicit formula for <span><math><mi>E</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>|</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, i.e., the expected value of the bivariate random variable <em>X</em> conditioned to the event <span><math><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>, with <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>∈</mo><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>. Such a conditional expectation has an intuitive interpretation in the context of risk measures. Specifically, <span><math><mi>E</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>|</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> can be interpreted as the Tail Conditional Co-Expectation of <em>X</em> (TCoES). Our main result analytically proves that for a large number of Elliptical distributions, the TCoES can be written as a function of the probability density function of the Skew Elliptical distributions introduced in the literature by the pioneering work of <span><span>Azzalini (1985)</span></span>. Some numerical experiments based on empirical data show the usefulness of the obtained results for real-world applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54974,"journal":{"name":"Insurance Mathematics & Economics","volume":"119 ","pages":"Pages 251-260"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bivariate Tail Conditional Co-Expectation for elliptical distributions\",\"authors\":\"Roy Cerqueti , Arsen Palestini\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.09.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper, we consider a random vector <span><math><mi>X</mi><mo>=</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><msub><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> following a multivariate Elliptical distribution and we provide an explicit formula for <span><math><mi>E</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>|</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, i.e., the expected value of the bivariate random variable <em>X</em> conditioned to the event <span><math><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>, with <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>∈</mo><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>. Such a conditional expectation has an intuitive interpretation in the context of risk measures. Specifically, <span><math><mi>E</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>|</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>≤</mo><mover><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> can be interpreted as the Tail Conditional Co-Expectation of <em>X</em> (TCoES). Our main result analytically proves that for a large number of Elliptical distributions, the TCoES can be written as a function of the probability density function of the Skew Elliptical distributions introduced in the literature by the pioneering work of <span><span>Azzalini (1985)</span></span>. Some numerical experiments based on empirical data show the usefulness of the obtained results for real-world applications.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54974,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Insurance Mathematics & Economics\",\"volume\":\"119 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 251-260\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Insurance Mathematics & Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668724001021\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Insurance Mathematics & Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668724001021","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在本文中,我们考虑了一个服从多元椭圆分布的随机向量 X=(X1,X2),并提供了一个明确的 E(X|X≤X˜) 公式,即以事件 X≤X˜ 为条件的二元随机变量 X 的期望值,其中 X˜∈R2。这种条件期望在风险度量中有着直观的解释。具体来说,E(X|X≤X˜) 可以解释为 X 的尾部条件共同期望(TCoES)。我们的主要结果通过分析证明,对于大量椭圆分布,TCoES 可以写成 Azzalini(1985 年)开创性工作中引入的斜椭圆分布概率密度函数的函数。一些基于经验数据的数值实验表明,所获得的结果在实际应用中非常有用。
Bivariate Tail Conditional Co-Expectation for elliptical distributions
In this paper, we consider a random vector following a multivariate Elliptical distribution and we provide an explicit formula for , i.e., the expected value of the bivariate random variable X conditioned to the event , with . Such a conditional expectation has an intuitive interpretation in the context of risk measures. Specifically, can be interpreted as the Tail Conditional Co-Expectation of X (TCoES). Our main result analytically proves that for a large number of Elliptical distributions, the TCoES can be written as a function of the probability density function of the Skew Elliptical distributions introduced in the literature by the pioneering work of Azzalini (1985). Some numerical experiments based on empirical data show the usefulness of the obtained results for real-world applications.
期刊介绍:
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