Predictors of malignant transformation in mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasm: A systemic review and meta-analysis

Background

The presence of ovarian-type stroma defines mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN). Criteria for surgical resection differ between current consensus guidelines (IAP, AGA, and Europe). This meta-analysis aims to describe pre-surgical clinical parameters that predict malignant transformation of MCN of the pancreas.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis of articles published from 2006 to the time of manuscript authorship in December 2022. The electronic databases included English publications in Ovid MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, and Scopus.

Results

17 studies were identified and included 1058 patients with MCN treated with pancreatectomy. The mean cohort age was 48.2 years (standard deviation [SD] ± 7.9) with an expected female predominance (96 %). The presenting symptom for most was abdominal pain (55.6 %), however, nearly 20 % of patients were asymptomatic. Most patients were treated with distal pancreatectomy (70.5 %), and the mean tumor size was 45 mm. The rate of invasive cancer was 13.8 %. Cysts with mural nodules had a higher risk of developing invasive tumors than those that did not (OR 26.47, 95%CI 12.57–55.74, p < 0.001, I2:0 %). Other clinical factors such as the presence of intramural calcifications or an elevated serum CA 19–9 (>37U/mL) were not predictive of malignancy.

Conclusion

The present meta-analysis did not clarify establishing reliable predictors for malignant transformation other than mural modularity, which may represent tumors that have already undergone transformation. It may be used as a criterion in treatment decision-making.