Chloé R. Nater, Christian Lydersen, Magnus Andersen, Kit M. Kovacs
{"title":"气候变化下需要重新思考收获可持续性评估:挪威斯瓦尔巴群岛环斑海豹案例研究","authors":"Chloé R. Nater, Christian Lydersen, Magnus Andersen, Kit M. Kovacs","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70020","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Throughout the Arctic, ice-affiliated marine mammals constitute local subsistence resources but detrimental effects of declines in their sea ice habitats create a need for harvest sustainability assessments in light of climate change. At the same time, empirical data required for thorough population analysis of these species are often sparse at best, as illustrated by the focal species in this study, ringed seals in Svalbard: the last population survey took place two decades ago (2002–2003), demographic data are limited to age, sex, and reproductive status of a small subset of shot individuals, and harvest reporting is patchy and incomplete. Data sparsity is one of the main reasons why potential biological removal (PBR) became a commonly used tool for assessing sustainability of marine mammal harvests. Herein, we calculated PBR for Svalbard ringed seals using both recommended default parameters and population-specific parameters obtained from an integrated population model (IPM). PBR estimates were highly uncertain, suggesting the number of sustainably harvestable individuals could lie anywhere between 0 and 91, with a substantial chance of any harvest being unsustainable under current environmental conditions and trends. Subsequent population viability analyses (PVAs) further confirmed that the current harvest was likely unsustainable, even in a scenario in which sea ice conditions would not deteriorate (and therefore lower pup survival) further. However, uncertainty in population projections was high, and forecasts thus not ideal for formulating management advice. Better forecasts will require more frequent population surveys and obtaining more knowledge regarding the links between vital rates and environmental conditions, both of which may be facilitated by the adoption of novel technology (e.g., drone monitoring, genetic studies). The modeling framework created in this study can be readily updated with new data as they become available, and can serve as a tool for adaptive management of this and other marine mammal populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70020","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Harvest sustainability assessments need rethinking under climate change: A ringed seal case study from Svalbard, Norway\",\"authors\":\"Chloé R. Nater, Christian Lydersen, Magnus Andersen, Kit M. Kovacs\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/ecs2.70020\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Throughout the Arctic, ice-affiliated marine mammals constitute local subsistence resources but detrimental effects of declines in their sea ice habitats create a need for harvest sustainability assessments in light of climate change. At the same time, empirical data required for thorough population analysis of these species are often sparse at best, as illustrated by the focal species in this study, ringed seals in Svalbard: the last population survey took place two decades ago (2002–2003), demographic data are limited to age, sex, and reproductive status of a small subset of shot individuals, and harvest reporting is patchy and incomplete. Data sparsity is one of the main reasons why potential biological removal (PBR) became a commonly used tool for assessing sustainability of marine mammal harvests. Herein, we calculated PBR for Svalbard ringed seals using both recommended default parameters and population-specific parameters obtained from an integrated population model (IPM). PBR estimates were highly uncertain, suggesting the number of sustainably harvestable individuals could lie anywhere between 0 and 91, with a substantial chance of any harvest being unsustainable under current environmental conditions and trends. Subsequent population viability analyses (PVAs) further confirmed that the current harvest was likely unsustainable, even in a scenario in which sea ice conditions would not deteriorate (and therefore lower pup survival) further. However, uncertainty in population projections was high, and forecasts thus not ideal for formulating management advice. Better forecasts will require more frequent population surveys and obtaining more knowledge regarding the links between vital rates and environmental conditions, both of which may be facilitated by the adoption of novel technology (e.g., drone monitoring, genetic studies). The modeling framework created in this study can be readily updated with new data as they become available, and can serve as a tool for adaptive management of this and other marine mammal populations.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48930,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecosphere\",\"volume\":\"15 10\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70020\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecosphere\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70020\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecosphere","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70020","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Harvest sustainability assessments need rethinking under climate change: A ringed seal case study from Svalbard, Norway
Throughout the Arctic, ice-affiliated marine mammals constitute local subsistence resources but detrimental effects of declines in their sea ice habitats create a need for harvest sustainability assessments in light of climate change. At the same time, empirical data required for thorough population analysis of these species are often sparse at best, as illustrated by the focal species in this study, ringed seals in Svalbard: the last population survey took place two decades ago (2002–2003), demographic data are limited to age, sex, and reproductive status of a small subset of shot individuals, and harvest reporting is patchy and incomplete. Data sparsity is one of the main reasons why potential biological removal (PBR) became a commonly used tool for assessing sustainability of marine mammal harvests. Herein, we calculated PBR for Svalbard ringed seals using both recommended default parameters and population-specific parameters obtained from an integrated population model (IPM). PBR estimates were highly uncertain, suggesting the number of sustainably harvestable individuals could lie anywhere between 0 and 91, with a substantial chance of any harvest being unsustainable under current environmental conditions and trends. Subsequent population viability analyses (PVAs) further confirmed that the current harvest was likely unsustainable, even in a scenario in which sea ice conditions would not deteriorate (and therefore lower pup survival) further. However, uncertainty in population projections was high, and forecasts thus not ideal for formulating management advice. Better forecasts will require more frequent population surveys and obtaining more knowledge regarding the links between vital rates and environmental conditions, both of which may be facilitated by the adoption of novel technology (e.g., drone monitoring, genetic studies). The modeling framework created in this study can be readily updated with new data as they become available, and can serve as a tool for adaptive management of this and other marine mammal populations.
期刊介绍:
The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.