气候变化下需要重新思考收获可持续性评估:挪威斯瓦尔巴群岛环斑海豹案例研究

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecosphere Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.70020
Chloé R. Nater, Christian Lydersen, Magnus Andersen, Kit M. Kovacs
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在整个北极地区,与冰有关的海洋哺乳动物是当地赖以生存的资源,但由于海冰栖息地的减少造成了有害影响,因此需要根据气候变化对捕捞的可持续性进行评估。与此同时,对这些物种进行全面种群分析所需的经验数据往往稀少,本研究的重点物种--斯瓦尔巴群岛的环斑海豹--就说明了这一点:上一次种群调查是在二十年前(2002-2003 年),人口统计数据仅限于一小部分中枪个体的年龄、性别和繁殖状况,采捕报告零散且不完整。数据稀缺是潜在生物清除量(PBR)成为评估海洋哺乳动物捕捞可持续性的常用工具的主要原因之一。在此,我们使用推荐的默认参数和从综合种群模型(IPM)中获得的特定种群参数计算了斯瓦尔巴特环斑海豹的潜在生物去除率。PBR 估计值具有高度不确定性,表明可持续捕获的个体数量可能介于 0 到 91 之间,在当前环境条件和趋势下,任何捕获都有很大可能是不可持续的。随后的种群存活率分析(PVAs)进一步证实,即使在海冰条件不会进一步恶化(从而降低幼鲸存活率)的情况下,目前的捕捞量也很可能是不可持续的。然而,种群预测的不确定性很高,因此预测结果并不适合用于制定管理建议。要做出更好的预测,需要更频繁地进行种群调查,并获得更多关于生命率与环境条件之间联系的知识,而采用新技术(如无人机监测、基因研究)可能会促进这两方面的工作。本研究创建的建模框架可随时根据新数据进行更新,并可作为该种群和其他海洋哺乳动物种群的适应性管理工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Harvest sustainability assessments need rethinking under climate change: A ringed seal case study from Svalbard, Norway

Throughout the Arctic, ice-affiliated marine mammals constitute local subsistence resources but detrimental effects of declines in their sea ice habitats create a need for harvest sustainability assessments in light of climate change. At the same time, empirical data required for thorough population analysis of these species are often sparse at best, as illustrated by the focal species in this study, ringed seals in Svalbard: the last population survey took place two decades ago (2002–2003), demographic data are limited to age, sex, and reproductive status of a small subset of shot individuals, and harvest reporting is patchy and incomplete. Data sparsity is one of the main reasons why potential biological removal (PBR) became a commonly used tool for assessing sustainability of marine mammal harvests. Herein, we calculated PBR for Svalbard ringed seals using both recommended default parameters and population-specific parameters obtained from an integrated population model (IPM). PBR estimates were highly uncertain, suggesting the number of sustainably harvestable individuals could lie anywhere between 0 and 91, with a substantial chance of any harvest being unsustainable under current environmental conditions and trends. Subsequent population viability analyses (PVAs) further confirmed that the current harvest was likely unsustainable, even in a scenario in which sea ice conditions would not deteriorate (and therefore lower pup survival) further. However, uncertainty in population projections was high, and forecasts thus not ideal for formulating management advice. Better forecasts will require more frequent population surveys and obtaining more knowledge regarding the links between vital rates and environmental conditions, both of which may be facilitated by the adoption of novel technology (e.g., drone monitoring, genetic studies). The modeling framework created in this study can be readily updated with new data as they become available, and can serve as a tool for adaptive management of this and other marine mammal populations.

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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
期刊最新文献
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