{"title":"预测热带气旋路径的深度学习方法:以西北太平洋地区为重点的分析","authors":"Peng Hao, Yaqi Zhao, Shuang Li, Jinbao Song, Yu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we conducted a comprehensive and integrated test of tropical cyclone track prediction using deep learning technologies, aiming to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction methods. We employed the Best Track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, which covers the Northwest Pacific region from 1949 to 2023. This dataset provides comprehensive coverage, encompassing critical tropical cyclone details like time, latitude, longitude, and wind speed. Our focus was on evaluating and comparing different deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for their effectiveness in handling complex time series data. Through detailed analysis of various model configurations, including factors such as input-output lengths, hidden size, the number of layers, the implementation of bi-directional networks, and attention mechanisms, we discovered that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform traditional RNN models in dealing with long-term dependencies and enhancing prediction accuracy. Moreover, the LSTM model, used to forecast key tropical cyclones during the 2023 Pacific tropical cyclone season, achieved mean errors of 21.84 km, 37.56 km, and 26.12 km for Typhoons Mawar, Doksuri, and Saola, respectively. This method also demonstrated high efficiency in rapid response to extreme weather changes, processing each tropical cyclone's forecast in just about 8 s. The results not only illustrate the practical utility of deep learning in tropical cyclone track prediction but also provide new, effective tools for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Deep learning approaches in predicting tropical cyclone tracks: An analysis focused on the Northwest Pacific Region\",\"authors\":\"Peng Hao, Yaqi Zhao, Shuang Li, Jinbao Song, Yu Gao\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this study, we conducted a comprehensive and integrated test of tropical cyclone track prediction using deep learning technologies, aiming to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction methods. We employed the Best Track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, which covers the Northwest Pacific region from 1949 to 2023. This dataset provides comprehensive coverage, encompassing critical tropical cyclone details like time, latitude, longitude, and wind speed. Our focus was on evaluating and comparing different deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for their effectiveness in handling complex time series data. Through detailed analysis of various model configurations, including factors such as input-output lengths, hidden size, the number of layers, the implementation of bi-directional networks, and attention mechanisms, we discovered that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform traditional RNN models in dealing with long-term dependencies and enhancing prediction accuracy. Moreover, the LSTM model, used to forecast key tropical cyclones during the 2023 Pacific tropical cyclone season, achieved mean errors of 21.84 km, 37.56 km, and 26.12 km for Typhoons Mawar, Doksuri, and Saola, respectively. This method also demonstrated high efficiency in rapid response to extreme weather changes, processing each tropical cyclone's forecast in just about 8 s. The results not only illustrate the practical utility of deep learning in tropical cyclone track prediction but also provide new, effective tools for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19457,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ocean Modelling\",\"volume\":\"192 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102444\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ocean Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001318\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ocean Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001318","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Deep learning approaches in predicting tropical cyclone tracks: An analysis focused on the Northwest Pacific Region
In this study, we conducted a comprehensive and integrated test of tropical cyclone track prediction using deep learning technologies, aiming to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction methods. We employed the Best Track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, which covers the Northwest Pacific region from 1949 to 2023. This dataset provides comprehensive coverage, encompassing critical tropical cyclone details like time, latitude, longitude, and wind speed. Our focus was on evaluating and comparing different deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for their effectiveness in handling complex time series data. Through detailed analysis of various model configurations, including factors such as input-output lengths, hidden size, the number of layers, the implementation of bi-directional networks, and attention mechanisms, we discovered that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform traditional RNN models in dealing with long-term dependencies and enhancing prediction accuracy. Moreover, the LSTM model, used to forecast key tropical cyclones during the 2023 Pacific tropical cyclone season, achieved mean errors of 21.84 km, 37.56 km, and 26.12 km for Typhoons Mawar, Doksuri, and Saola, respectively. This method also demonstrated high efficiency in rapid response to extreme weather changes, processing each tropical cyclone's forecast in just about 8 s. The results not only illustrate the practical utility of deep learning in tropical cyclone track prediction but also provide new, effective tools for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.
期刊介绍:
The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.