Circular economy strategies research for Beijing buildings in a low-carbon future

The circular economy strategy can effectively reconcile the contradiction between human activities and the ecological environment through utilizing resources efficiently and circularly, thereby promoting global low-carbon sustainable development. However, it lacks application in urban buildings. This study constructs the four-layer framework based on the turnover dynamic stock model and carbon emissions method. Combined with 7 circular economy strategies and scenario analysis, this framework captures the production, demand, use, recycling and reuse of 13 major materials in 7 prototypes of 3 types for Beijing's buildings, and explores the potential of dematerialization and low-carbon development from 2022 to 2060. Results indicate that the floor area will continue to grow to 1749.00 million m² by 2060, material requirements will increase by 49.64 Mt annually, and CO₂ emissions will increase by 8.26 Mt annually under current policies. Circular economy strategies can reduce cumulative material requirements by 20.40–762.09 Mt and CO₂ emissions by 2.62–157.46 Mt until 2060, which have enormous abatement potential for materials and CO₂ emissions. Executing multi-strategy simultaneously demonstrates superior overall effectiveness compared to individual strategies, which resulted in a cumulative reduction of 40.40 % of material requirements and 50.14 % of CO₂ emissions. Decarbonizing buildings, promoting sustainable development, and contributing to achieving "3060" dual carbon goals require a collaborative implementation of multiple strategies.