National health and economic impact of a lifestyle program to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a simulation study.

Introduction: To examine the long-term health and economic impact of a lifestyle diabetes prevention program in people with high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Germany.

Research design and methods: We assessed the lifetime cost-effectiveness of a 2-year pragmatic lifestyle program for preventing type 2 diabetes targeting German adults aged 35-54 and 55-74 years old with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) from 6.0% to 6.4%. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention RTI Diabetes Cost-Effectiveness Model to run a simulation on the program effectiveness. We estimated incremental health benefits in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs using an established simulation model adapted to the German context, from a healthcare system and societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness of the program was measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in cost per QALY. We projected the number of type 2 diabetes cases prevented by participation rate if the program was implemented nationwide.

Results: The lifestyle program would result to more QALYs and higher costs. The lifetime ICERs were 14 690€ (35-54 years old) and 14 372€ (55-74 years old) from a healthcare system perspective and cost saving (ICER=-3805€) and cost-effective (ICER=4579€), respectively, from a societal perspective. A total of 10 527 diabetes cases would be prevented over lifetime if the program was offered to all eligible people nationwide and 25% of those would participate in the program.

Conclusions: Implementing the lifestyle intervention for people with HbA1c from 6.0% to 6.4% could be a cost-effective at standard willingness to pay level strategy for type 2 diabetes prevention. The intervention in the younger cohort could be cost saving from a societal perspective. The successful implementation of a lifestyle-based diabetes prevention program could be an important component of a successful National Diabetes Strategy in Germany.