Serial Liver Stiffness Measurement and Fibrosis-4 Scores in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

Background: In patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), there are limited data on how changes in FIB4 and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) correlate in non-biopsy cohorts.

Aims: Our objective was to evaluate associations between changes in FIB4 and LSM in MASLD patients.

Methods: We included MASLD patients with serial VCTE from 2015-2022. The primary predictors were change in FIB4 and presence of diabetes, obesity, and high alanine aminotransferase (ALT). The primary outcome, applied only to patients with LSM1 < 8 kPa, was incident significant fibrosis (SF) defined as a ≥ 20% increase in LSM2 vs. LSM1 and LSM2 ≥ 8 kPa. A secondary outcome was LSM progression with a similar definition but applied to all participants, not only those with LSM1 < 8 kPa.

Results: Of 285 included patients, 216 had LSM1 < 8 kPa and were included in the primary analysis; of these, 34 (16%) had incident SF. Changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM (R = 0.16, p = 0.016). Independent predictors of incident SF included comorbid diabetes mellitus (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.04-6.56), obesity (OR 3.88, 95% CI 1.63-9.25), and baseline ALT ≥ 30 (OR 8.55, 95% CI 1.10-66.29). A model including ALT, diabetes, and obesity outperformed a model with FIB4 change alone.

Conclusion: Among patients with MASLD, changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM but more significant correlates of incident significant fibrosis included diabetes mellitus, obesity, and high baseline ALT.