Detection, Patterns, and Outcomes of Recurrent HPV-Positive Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Importance: Recurrent human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is a relatively rare but serious disease with little empirical data. Previous works have studied patterns of recurrence in HPV-positive OPSCC, but only one has studied truly recurrent disease as opposed to persistent disease, and no work systematically analyzed posttreatment surveillance imaging strategies and how recurrences were detected.

Objective: To refine the understanding of HPV-positive OPSCC recurrence and inform optimal imaging surveillance strategies.

Design, setting, and participants: This retrospective cohort study involved electronic medical record review at a tertiary care hospital. Patients treated for OPSCC from 2012 to 2019 were extracted, and patients diagnosed with HPV-positive OPSCC were identified. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to May 2023.

Main outcome measures: Percentage of patients with a true recurrence, location of recurrence, time of recurrence detection, and method of recurrence detection. Recurrence was demonstrated with a scan after an imaging-established disease-free state 3 to 6 months posttreatment.

Results: Of the 367 patients with HPV-positive OPSCC (mean [SD] age, 60.6 [9.2] years; 310 [84.5%] male), 37 (10.1%) experienced true disease recurrence. Median (IQR) follow-up time of the cohort was 3.6 years (8.5-88 months), defined as time from diagnosis to death or last contact. Within the true recurrence cohort, 21 patients (56.8%) experienced local, regional, or local and regional recurrence (LRR); 15 (40.5%) experienced distant metastasis (DM); and 1 (2.7%) experienced both LRR and DM. The mean (SD) time for detecting LRR was 2.46 (1.94) years and was considerably longer compared to the 1.89 (0.87) years for detecting DM (difference, 0.57 [95% CI, -0.29 to 1.02] years). The majority of patients identified their recurrence through symptom changes (31 [81.1%]) rather than through surveillance imaging (3 [8.1%]).

Conclusion and relevance: In this cohort study, 10.1% of patients experienced true HPV-positive OPSCC disease recurrence, with most incidences of DM occurring in the lung and brain. Disease recurrence was identified primarily through symptomatic change, suggesting that further research may be needed to understand the optimal surveillance strategies after definitive treatment.