Time to incident hypertension and independent predictors among people living with HIV in Nigeria.

Background: Understanding the time to hypertension occurrence after antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation in people living with HIV (PLHIV) and its determinants is important for designing interventions for control.

Objective: This study sought to estimate the median time of ART use to hypertension onset and its predictors in Nigerian PLHIV.

Design: A retrospective longitudinal study.

Methods: This retrospective review of 2503 normotensive adult PLHIV (⩾18 years) from 2004 to 2020 in two HIV clinics in Nigeria. Incident hypertension was based on clinical diagnosis or two consecutive blood pressure readings ⩾140/90 mmHg, taken during the 8 months of data collection. Survival event was defined as incident hypertension during follow-up or interview day for observed patients unless they were right censored. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate the survival probabilities of hypertension. The Cox proportional hazard model was fitted to identify predictors of hypertension at p < 0.05.

Results: A total of 2503 PLHIV was followed up. The majority were females (74.6%) and on Dolutegravir-based therapy (93.0%). About 22 (0.9%) were diabetic. Median age at ART initiation was 35 (interquartile range: 29-41) years. The median period of follow-up was 12.0 ± 3.9 years. The cumulative incidence of hypertension was 32.5% (381/2540), with an incidence rate of 40.1/1000 person-years. The median time to incident hypertension was 17.0 years (95% CI: 12.5-21.5 years). Shorter hypertension-free survival times were seen in males, those aged 60+, with diabetes, unsuppressed viral load, history of tuberculosis, other opportunistic infections, or co-trimoxazole use. Significant risk factors included male sex (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1-1.6), middle age (AOR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.7-3.2), old age (AOR = 5.6, 95% CI = 3.9-8.4), and unsuppressed viral load (AOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.3-2.7).

Conclusion: Hypertension is commoner among PLHIV with unsuppressed viral load, males, and persons older than 40 years. Effective ART with viral suppression remains essential. Incorporating regular hypertension screening and treatment into HIV care is necessary for optimum health outcomes.