Accuracy of novel anthropometric indices for assessing the risk for progression of prediabetes to diabetes; 13 years of results from Isfahan Cohort Study.

Objective: We examined the accuracy of novel anthropometric indices in predicting the progression of prediabetes to diabetes.

Subjects and methods: This study was performed on the pre-diabetic sub-population from Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). Participants were followed up from 2001 to 2013. During every 5-year follow-up survey, patients' data regarding the incidence and time of incidence of diabetes were recorded. We evaluated the association between the risk of developing diabetes and novel anthropometric indices including: visceral adiposity index (VAI), lipid accumulation products (LAP), deep abdominal adipose tissue (DAAT), abdominal volume index (AVI), A body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI) and weight-adjusted waist index (WWI). We categorized the indices into two groups according to the median value of each index in the population. We used Cox regression analysis to obtain hazard ratios (HR) using the first group as the reference category and used receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis for comparing the predictive performance of the indices.

Results: From 215 included subjects, 79 developed diabetes during the 13-year follow-up. AVI, LAP, BRI, and VAI indicated statistically significant HR in crude and adjusted regression models. LAP had the greatest association with the development of diabetes HR = 2.18 (1.36-3.50) in multivariable analysis. ROC curve analysis indicated that LAP has the greatest predictive performance among indices (area under the curve = 0.627).

Conclusion: Regardless of baseline confounding variables, prediabetic patients with a higher LAP index may be at significantly higher risk for developing diabetes.