Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022-2030: a needs-based modelling study.

Introduction: An adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for health, among other factors in the WHO Africa Region, has consistently resulted in underinvestment in HWF development, shortages of the HWF at the frontlines of service delivery and unemployment of qualified and trained health workers. This is further compounded by the ever-evolving disease burden and reduced access to essential health services along the continuum of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative care, rehabilitation and palliative care.

Methods: A stock and flow model based on HWF stock in 2022, age structure, graduation and migration was conducted to project the available stock by 2030. To estimate the gap between the projected stock and the need, a population needs-based modelling was conducted to forecast the HWF needs by 2030. These estimations were conducted for all 47 countries in the WHO African Region. Combining the stock projection and needs-based estimation, the modelling framework included the stock of health workers, the population's need for health services, the need for health workers and gap analysis expressed as a needs-based shortage of health workers.

Results: The needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service delivery CONCLUSIONS: The WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population's health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease.