Nomogram predicts cervical lymph node metastasis of pathological subtypes of papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Background: Pathological subtypes of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) are important factors in thyroid cancer. Some rare subtypes exhibit extensive lymph node metastasis. These pathological subtypes should receive more attention in clinical practice.

Methods: Patients with different pathological subtypes of PTC were selected from the SEER database. Logistic regression, random forest, and bootstrap aggregating (bagging) methods were employed to screen for risk factors associated with cervical lymph node metastasis in the training cohort. A nomogram was established based on the model with the largest area under the curve (AUC) and evaluated using calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical benefit to patients. The nomogram was validated in depth by 200 iterations of tenfold cross-validation.

Results: A total of 7,882 patients were included in the analysis, with 5,516 patients in the training group and 2,366 patients in the testing group. The logistic regression model achieved the highest AUC of 0.7396. Sex, age, race, extension (extrathyroidal extension), pathological type, and primary tumour size were identified as independent risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis (p < 0.05). The calibration curve indicated that the model was well calibrated. DCA indicated that the nomogram model had good clinical practicability.

Conclusion: In clinical practice, it is important to consider the pathological subtypes of PTC. The established nomogram can serve as a predictive tool for assessing cervical lymph node metastasis.