A content analysis of illicit tobacco-related crimes reported in Australian media.

Introduction: Australian survey and seizure data suggest a growing illicit tobacco market. As an illicit product, accurately tracking trends in illicit tobacco growing, manufacture and sales is challenging. We examined trends in Australian illicit tobacco-related crimes using a content analysis of news articles.

Methods: We analysed Australian news articles identified in the Factiva database and government press releases describing Australian illicit tobacco-related crimes reported between January 2000 and December 2023. Sources were coded for crime type, location, product type, dollar value of seized products, methods of distribution or storage, agencies involved, and other crimes involved.

Results: We identified 447 crimes reported in 389 sources. The number of illicit-tobacco related crimes reported increased between 2000 and 2023. The most common crimes were possession of illicit tobacco (n=196/43.7%) and smuggling (n=187/41.8%), and the most common product type was 'illicit cigarettes' (n=197/44.1%). The most common distribution/storage method reported was via residential premises (n=98/21.9%). One-hundred and twenty incidents involved other crimes such as financial crimes involving money laundering (n=59/13.2%). Across all included news articles, the quantity of seized products totalled 827,529,307 cigarette sticks, 76,185 cartons, 668,687 packs, 239 hectares (of land growing tobacco plants), and 2,149,000 plants of illicit tobacco between 2000 and 2023. The median value (worth; AUD) of each seizure was $1,500,000 (range $43 to $67,000,000).

Conclusions: Australian media reporting on illicit tobacco-related crimes increased over the past two decades, particularly since 2018. These findings highlight a need for improved border detection measures, investment in enforcement and other deterrent activities.

Implications: This media analysis confirms trends identified in national survey data that indicate a growing illicit tobacco market in Australia since 2013 with a marked increase since 2018. While survey data suggests that Australian tobacco tax policy, which has included regular large tax increases since 2010, has decreased consumer demand for tobacco overall, it may have also incentivised criminal networks to supply illicit tobacco products due to it being a 'low risk' and 'high reward' activity. Controlling the Australian illicit tobacco market should be a policy priority.