Incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma based on risk stratification in steatotic liver disease for precision medicine: A real-world longitudinal nationwide study.

Background: Detailed subgroup incidence rates for steatotic liver disease (SLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are critical to inform practice and public health interventions but remain sparse. We aimed to fill in this gap.

Methods and findings: In a retrospective cohort study of adults with SLD from the United States (US) Merative Marketscan Research Databases (1/2007 to 12/2021), we estimated HCC incidence stratified by sex, age, cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus (DM), and a combination of all these 4 factors. We excluded patients with significant alcohol use and chronic viral hepatitis. We analyzed data from 741,816 patients with SLD (mean age 51.5 ± 12.8 years, 46% male, 14.7% cirrhosis). During a 2,410,166 person-years (PY) follow-up, 1,740 patients developed HCC. The overall HCC incidence yielded 0.72 per 1,000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI, 0.68, 0.75]). The incidence was higher in males (0.95, 95% CI [0.89, 1.01]) compared to females (0.52, 95% CI [0.48, 0.56]) (p < 0.001). For those with cirrhosis, the incidence was significantly higher at 4.29 (95% CI [4.06, 4.51]) compared to those without cirrhosis (0.14, 95% CI [0.13, 0.16]) (p < 0.001). Additionally, the incidence was higher in patients with DM (1.19, 95% CI [1.12, 1.26]) compared to those without DM (0.41, 95% CI [0.38, 0.44]) (p < 0.001). Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was also associated with a higher HCC incidence of 2.20 (95% CI [2.00, 2.41]) compared to those without CKD (0.58, 95% CI [0.55, 0.62]) (p < 0.001). Similarly, individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) had a higher HCC incidence of 1.89 (95% CI [1.75, 2.03]) compared to those without CVD (0.51, 95% CI [0.48, 0.54]) (p < 0.001). Finally, the incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with non-liver cancer (3.90, 95% CI [3.67, 4.12]) compared to those without other cancers (0.29, 95% CI [0.26, 0.31]) (p < 0.001). On further stratification, HCC incidence incrementally rose by 10-year age intervals, male sex, cirrhosis, and DM, reaching 19.06 (95% CI [16.10, 22.01]) and 8.44 (95% CI [6.78, 10.10]) in males and females, respectively, but only 0.04 for non-diabetic, noncirrhotic aged <40 years patients in both sexes. The main limitation of this methodology is the potential misclassification of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes inherent in claims database studies.

Conclusions: This nationwide study provided robust granular estimates for SLD-related HCC incidence stratified by several key risk factors. In addition to cirrhosis, future surveillance strategies, prevention, public health initiatives, and future research models should also take into account the impact of sex, age, and DM.